In our previous article on the rise of Digital Asset Treasuries, we highlighted how these public companies are using public equities and debt instruments to buy more crypto assets. As crypto prices go up, the value of their holding in turn increases which then often leads to strengthening their stock and they are ultimately able to raise fresh capital to buy more crypto. The result is a self-reinforcing loop or flywheel that can speed up growth when conditions are favourable.
That said, financial reflexivity does not only work on the way up. Ever since the October 10th leverage unwind, the crypto market has structurally tilted to the downside with total market cap falling by over 50%. Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which makes up the bulk of digital asset treasuries, are now down over 25% and 38% respectively. This downturn has thereby prompted serious questions around the sustainability of this model.
The reality is that when crypto prices fall, equity valuations can compress, premiums can vanish and access to cheap capital can tighten. The volatility around the stock prices of the two largest DATs, Strategy and BitMine, is indicative of how closely these equities can track shifts in crypto sentiment.
This article looks into the risks associated with the DAT model, not from the standpoint of whether crypto itself will succeed, but from the perspective of capital structure and balance sheet stability.
Reflexivity Cuts Both Ways
In a rising market, higher crypto prices lift the value of treasury holdings, which can push the stock price higher and make raising capital easier. This is the part of the cycle that many have gotten accustomed to since the DAT trend really took off last year. What is not discussed enough however is how the same loop works in reverse.
When crypto prices fall, the value of the company’s holdings fall too. Since many investors see the company as a way to get exposure to crypto, the stock price usually drops as well. Think of it like this: say a company holds $1 billion in Bitcoin and BTC drops by 20%, the value of this holding now drops to $800 million. Investors immediately factor that into how they view the company. If the company’s identity is closely tied to their crypto exposure, the stock often reacts quickly.
There’s also a second layer. In bull markets, investors may be willing to pay extra (a premium) for that exposure. In a downturn, they become more cautious. That premium can shrink because:
- Confidence falls
- Risk appetite drops
- Investors prefer to own the asset directly rather than the wrapper
So the stock doesn’t just fall because the crypto holding falls in value. It can fall because the narrative premium attached to it compresses at the same time.
This is where the reverse reflexivity paradigm comes into effect. In a declining market, raising money simply becomes a lot more difficult for DATs. If the stock price has fallen, the company would have to sell more shares to raise the same amount of money. This effectively means that existing shareholders would own a smaller piece of the company.
Adding to this, borrowing can also become tougher. When there is uncertainty around markets and prices are in a drawdown, lenders see more risk. To compensate for that risk, they usually ask for higher interest rates. This is the paradox of the DAT model. Money that was once cheap and easy to access becomes expensive and harder to secure.
Leverage and Debt Funded Accumulation
Many Digital Asset Treasury companies do not rely on cash alone to buy crypto. These public companies often use convertible bonds, structured financing or other equity linked instruments to raise money and accumulate crypto. This works fine when crypto prices are rising as the value of the assets increases while the debt stays manageable. However this same structure has a built-in mismatch which becomes clearly visible when prices take a turn to the downside. Bitcoin, Ethereum or others are inherently volatile assets. The liabilities these DATs take on, such as debt repayments, are fixed and must be honoured regardless of market conditions.
When crypto prices fall sharply like they have recently, the value of the company’s holdings drop alongside this while its debt stays intact. The company still has to adhere to interest payments and repayment deadlines, even though the assets backing that debt are worth less. This ultimately puts pressure on the company’s balance sheet. When we look at traditional treasury management, assets are usually stable and predictable. In the DAT model, volatility sits on the asset side, which means swings in price can amplify both gains and losses for the company.
Another important pressure point to understand within the entire DAT model is something called NAV, or net asset value. This basically measures the value of the crypto a company holds on its balance sheet. If a company holds $1 billion in cryptocurrencies and its stock market value is higher than that, the stock is said to be trading at a premium. In this scenario, issuing new shares becomes lucrative because the company is raising more money than the value of the assets backing each share. On the flipside, if the stock falls below the value of its holdings, issuing new shares does the opposite as it forces the company to sell equity at a discount, which weakens existing shareholders.
We’ve seen how premiums can go up quickly during bull markets. However, these premiums can shrink just as fast when sentiment shifts and prices fall. When this declines, growth becomes harder. Apart from the company’s ability to raise capital slowing down, investors may question the model and management may be pushed into a more defensive stance.
Now when we look at the current scenario, it’s clear that the market is no longer assigning blanket premiums to all DAT companies. Instead, it appears to be pricing them based on perceived balance sheet strength, execution ability and sustainability of the model.
Innovation with Embedded Volatility
The DAT model is a real shift in how capital markets interact with cryptocurrencies. They have turned digital asset exposure into a corporate strategy, using equity and debt markets to accumulate positions. However, for all the pros this model carries in a bullish environment, the inverse impact of this model is coming to light as crypto goes through a deep correction.
There is a clear takeaway in that these public companies are building capital structures around crypto rather than simply holding it. This means the risk does not only come from crypto prices going up or down but how those changes affect the company’s debt levels, share issuance and ability to raise money.
Now for those looking at this model from within the crypto space, the natural question is whether this has the potential to cause a further unwind in prices of assets across the board. If some of the largest DAT companies have debt coming due, run short on cash or struggle to borrow again during a downturn, they may be forced to slow their buys, or in tougher situations, sell a portion of their crypto from their balance sheet. Therefore, there is a likelihood that this could cause more downside but this does not automatically imply a contagion or a systemic collapse across all DATs.
Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/the-structural-risks-behind-digital-asset-treasury-companies/