Litecoin (LTC) is advancing in a continuous temporary downtrend, with the current price at $51.84 approaching critical supports. RSI at 34 shows the downward momentum slowing, while MACD gives a bullish signal with a positive histogram; however, the overall picture requires a cautious approach.
Executive Summary
Litecoin is maintaining its downtrend at $51.84 price, trading in the $50.91-$53.63 range with a 3.30% drop in the last 24 hours. While Supertrend gives a bearish signal and price failed to hold above EMA20 ($55.76), RSI at 34.07 is approaching the oversold region; MACD carries slight bullish hope with a positive histogram. Critical support at $51.72 (strength 76/100), resistance at $52.10 (79/100); high risk for altcoins due to BTC correlation. Risk/Reward focus: bullish target $67.34 (low probability), bearish $29.21.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
LTC is moving within an overall downtrend. The Supertrend indicator is in a bearish position and forming a $61.41 resistance level, signaling limited short-term recoveries. Price failed to hold above EMA20 ($55.76), which now reinforces the short-term bearish bias. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) identifies 11 strong levels: 1D with 1 support/1 resistance, 3D with 2S/2R, 1W with 2S/4R. This indicates structural weakness and dominant resistances. Volume at $145.79M is moderate but decreasing on the downside, confirming seller dominance.
Structural Levels
Main structural support at $51.7173 (strength score 76/100), below which the $50.91 intraday low comes into play. Resistance at $52.1000 (79/100) as the first hurdle, followed by EMA20 $55.76 and Supertrend $61.41. On the weekly timeframe, 4 resistances (approximately $58-65 range) form structural upper bands. These levels show the market structure is maintaining a bearish lower high/lower low (LH/LL) pattern.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 34.07, approaching the oversold region (below 30), signaling seller momentum exhaustion. This increases the chance of a short-term bounce but requires confirmation for trend reversal. MACD has formed a positive histogram, on the verge of crossing above the signal line; this carries bullish divergence potential. Other momentum indicators like Stochastic and CCI also give similar mixed signals: downward bias but weakening.
Trend Indicators
EMA group bearish: Price below EMA20 ($55.76), EMA50, and EMA200, death cross completed. Supertrend has flipped bearish, trailing stop at $61.41. In Ichimoku Cloud, price is below the cloud, Tenkan-Kijun death cross active. Parabolic SAR also giving sell signal. Overall trend indicators confirm the downtrend dominance and require EMA20 breakout for recovery.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: First $51.7173 (76/100, pivot+volume confluence), second $50.91 (daily low), third 1W support $48-49 range. These levels overlap with fib 0.618 ($51.50 area). Resistances: $52.1000 (79/100, fib 0.236+round), $55.76 (EMA20), $58 (3D resistance), $61.41 (Supertrend). Multi-TF confluence: 1W with 4 resistance cluster in $60+ band. These levels support range-bound movement; break below $51.72 risks bearish impulse to $45.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume $145.79M, lower than previous day (%20-30 decrease), indicating waning seller appetite. OBV (On-Balance Volume) flattening in downtrend, forming divergence. VWAP intraday around $52.50, price below – bearish. Whale activity moderate; spot volume 40% of futures, long/short ratio 0.95 (slight short bias). Volume profile shows POC (Point of Control) at $52 resistance, thin profile at support – risky.
Risk Assessment
Risk/Reward: Bullish target $67.3444 (score 30/100, R:R 1:2.5 from $51 support), bearish $29.2097 (22/100, R:R 1:3.5). Main risks: BTC downtrend continuation (LTC correlation 0.85+), $51.72 breakdown (%5-10 drop), fakeout without volume surge. Stop-loss suggestion: below $51.20, long entry on $52.10 rejection. Position size %1-2 risk, high volatility (ATR %4). Overall risk level: Medium-High, cautious long/short scalping.
Bitcoin Correlation
LTC shows high correlation with BTC (0.87 7-day); BTC at $65,352 with -3.38% drop and downtrend (Supertrend bearish). If BTC supports $63,970 / $62,400 / $60,000 fail to hold, pressure increases on LTC $51 support – risk of slip to $48. BTC resistances $65,825 / $68,218; bounce from here could bring LTC recovery to $55+. If BTC.D dominance rises (current trend), altcoin bleed continues – %10+ drop possible for LTC. Key to watch: BTC $64K hold, LTC long trigger.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
Overall picture bearish: Downtrend, price below EMA, Supertrend sell; however, RSI oversold + MACD bullish histogram gives mixed signal offering short-term bounce ($52-55) potential. If critical $51.72 support holds, scalping long; if broken, short bias. BTC correlation dominant – wait for $64K BTC hold. Long-term 1W structure weak, $67 target low probability. Strategy: LTC Spot Analysis for range trade, LTC Futures Analysis for leveraged scalping. Wait-and-see, risk management priority.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.