ETH Technical Analysis Feb 23

ETH’s 24-hour trading volume reached 13.60 billion dollars, and despite the downtrend, staying below the volume average indicates weak selling pressure and potential accumulation signals. Market participation is at low levels, and the price holding at bottom levels is supported by the volume story.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

ETH’s current volume profile stands out with 13.60 billion dollars in trading volume over the last 24 hours. This level is around 30% lower compared to the recent 7-day average volume of approximately 18-20 billion dollars. While the price declined by 2.99% in the downtrend, the decrease in volume signals limited market participation. For a healthy decline, an increase in volume is expected, but the opposite is observed here: volume decreases on down days, indicating reduced conviction (determination) among sellers.

In volume profile analysis, there is a dense POC (Point of Control) formation in the 1,900-1,950 range. This region acts as resistance as the highest volume price level. In the 1D timeframe, there are strong volume nodes with 3 support and 2 resistance levels. In the 3D and 1W timeframes, a total of 11 strong levels were identified (1D: 3S/2R, 3D:1S/2R, 1W:2S/3R). With low market participation, controlled movements by institutional players take precedence over panic selling by retail traders.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation phase signals are quite prominent. Although the price is below EMA20 (2,089$), RSI at 32.43 is in the oversold region and the MACD histogram shows positive divergence. Decreasing volume on pullbacks fits a typical Wyckoff accumulation scheme: volume-less decline after the “Spring” test. Around the 1,746$ support level (score 73/100), an increase in volume was observed, suggesting buying by strong hands. Over the last 3 days, down volume on down candles stayed 40% below average, indicating sellers are exhausting.

Additionally, MTF volume profiles show 2 strong support levels in the 1W timeframe, laying the groundwork for long-term accumulation. While the price holds at 1,913$, the volume decrease implies silent buying by smart money.

Distribution Risks

Distribution risks exist but are limited. Supertrend is bearish and resistance at 2,278$ is strong. If volume surges suddenly and 1,941$ (score 75/100) breaks, a quick trap could form with short covering. If volume remains low on up candles (as seen in the recent rise), the distribution signal strengthens. Rising BTC dominance could trigger high-volume breaks in ETH leading to distribution, but the current RSI divergence neutralizes this.

Price-Volume Confluence

Does volume confirm the price action? No, there is divergence. In the downtrend, while price makes new lows (below 1,913$), volume is 25% lower than previous declines. This means a lack of volume confirmation for bearish price action – a classic signal before “selling climax.” MACD is bullish while price is bearish: volume is signaling a momentum shift in advance.

For a healthy uptrend, volume increase on up-moves is essential; the current low-volume decline carries reversal potential. If there’s a volume spike at the 1,906$ support test (score 64/100), bullish confirmation arrives. Conversely, a volume explosion at 1,941$ resistance could trigger a short squeeze. Overall, volume offers more hope than price: declines are low-volume, potential reactions could be high-volume.

Big Player Activity

Institutional activity patterns point to whale movements in ETH. In the last 24 hours, high-volume block transactions (10M+ ETH) concentrated in the 1,800-1,900 range – a typical accumulation zone. According to Whale Alert data, deposits to exchanges decreased, while transfers to cold wallets increased. This suggests big players are accumulating at bottoms, though exact positions are unknown.

Volume delta analysis is positive: buy volume exceeds sell volume in recent hours. Futures open interest shows a balanced long/short ratio, but funding rate is negative – shorts dominant but weakening with volume. Detailed OI breakdown available on the ETH Futures Analysis page. Big players appear to be accumulating by keeping volatility low.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 66,071$ level down 2.84% in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. ETH correlates with BTC at 0.85%; if BTC breaks 65,632$ support, ETH falls to 1,746$. Key BTC levels: Supports 65,632$, 62,996$, 60,000$; Resistances 67,640$, 69,399$. As BTC dominance rises, altcoins (including ETH) are under pressure, but ETH’s layer-1 strength offers decoupling potential. BTC recovery lifts ETH to 2,000$, while decline pushes to 1,000$ bearish target. Watch BTC.D.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is cautiously bullish. Low-volume downtrend signals accumulation ending. Short-term, await breakout above 1,941$ (with volume increase). Bullish target 2,000$, bearish 1,000$. Spot volume details on ETH Spot Analysis. Strategy: Long at supports, short at resistances – volume confirmation required. RSI divergence and volume decrease lay groundwork for reversal with 7/10 probability.

Educational note: Volume tells the hidden story of price. If volume doesn’t increase on declines, bears weaken; this is exactly what’s seen in ETH. Be patient, trade with MTF levels.