Gold valued at $5,790 under Deutsche Bank reserve model

Deutsche Bank: gold price $5,790 per ounce matches dollar reserves

As reported by Barron’s, a scenario analysis holds that when gold reaches $5,790 per ounce, central bank gold reserves would surpass the U.S. dollar’s share within combined FX + gold reserves. This is framed as a share-of-reserves threshold rather than a price target.

The point estimates a price at which gold’s market value in official portfolios would match dollar-denominated holdings in that composite measure. It relies on reserve-share dynamics, not a forecast path.

Why U.S. dollar share of reserves makes this threshold matter

Reserve shares are relative measures. When the dollar’s weight changes, the price move gold requires to match that weight adjusts mechanically in the opposite direction, all else equal.

If gold quantities in official portfolios are held constant, a lower dollar share reduces the price needed for gold’s share to reach parity. If the dollar’s share increases, the threshold rises accordingly.

For reserve managers, the scenario implies gold can rival the dollar’s share in the combined FX + gold measure through price dynamics alone. Continued official-sector purchases would further reduce the price required to reach parity.

At the time of this writing, shares of Barrick Gold Corporation (ticker GOLD) traded around $57.77 on a delayed NYSE–Nasdaq feed; this is equity exposure, not bullion pricing. This contextual information is not investment advice.

How Deutsche Bank derived the $5,790 scenario threshold

The calculation values official gold at market prices inside the FX + gold reserve framework and equates that value to the dollar’s share. The result is a scenario threshold, not a directional forecast.

Under that setup, parity occurs where both assets hold roughly similar shares of the combined pool given static gold quantities. “When gold prices reach $5,790/ounce, central bank gold reserves will exceed dollar reserves,” said deutsche bank.

Assumptions: static gold holdings and U.S. dollar share changes

The scenario assumes no change in official gold tonnage and measures shares versus the U.S. dollar within the same pool. If central banks keep adding metal, the parity price falls. If the dollar’s share stabilizes or rises, the threshold increases. Sensitivity therefore depends on both balance-sheet quantities and relative currency movements.

Signals from World Gold Council and European Central Bank

According to the World Gold Council, survey responses indicate broad expectations for higher official gold holdings and fewer U.S. dollars over coming years. That directional signal is consistent with the scenario mechanics.

As noted by the European Central Bank, gold has overtaken the euro as the second‑largest reserve asset globally. This underscores gold’s increasing role in reserve management discussions.

FAQ about central bank gold reserves

What are the latest estimates of gold’s and the U.S. dollar’s shares of global FX + gold reserves?

As outlined above, gold is near one‑third and the U.S. dollar near two‑fifths of the combined pool, with parity modeled around the mid‑30% range each.

Additional official purchases raise gold’s share mechanically, so the price required to equal the dollar’s share declines, all else equal within the same FX + gold reserve framework.