TLDR
- Mike McGlone adjusted his Bitcoin price forecast from $10,000 to $28,000 following significant backlash on social media.
- McGlone had originally warned that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if U.S. equities peaked and a recession followed.
- The revised forecast of $28,000 is based on historical price distribution and fewer negative factors needed to reach that level.
- Analysts like Jason Fernandes criticized McGlone’s initial prediction, calling it alarmist and unrealistic.
- Mati Greenspan acknowledged the possibility of a $28,000 Bitcoin price but remained skeptical of its likelihood in the current market.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone recently adjusted his bitcoin price forecast, raising his downside target to $28,000. This shift followed criticism after his initial prediction of a potential $10,000 Bitcoin price was widely questioned on social media. McGlone’s revised stance comes after market experts accused him of issuing alarmist forecasts that could negatively impact investor decisions.
McGlone Faces Backlash for $10,000 Bitcoin Call
Earlier this week, McGlone warned that bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if U.S. equities reach their peak and a recession follows. He stated that bitcoin, being a high-beta asset, would suffer in a market breakdown, especially after the collapse of the “buy the dip” mentality. This prediction attracted significant criticism, with market analyst Jason Fernandes challenging the forecast on social media platforms like X and LinkedIn.
The backlash grew when Fernandes called McGlone’s $10,000 forecast unrealistic. He argued that such a dramatic drop would require several negative factors to align. Fernandes, in his critique, noted that the bitcoin price could face risks but stated that $28,000 was a more plausible level, particularly with fewer factors needed to drive that price point.
Bitcoin Price Forecast Revised to $28,000
In a subsequent post, McGlone acknowledged the feedback and adjusted his bitcoin price forecast. He pointed to $28,000 as a more likely scenario, citing historical price distribution as the basis for his updated target. Despite this revision, McGlone still maintained a cautious outlook, advising against investing in bitcoin or other risk assets.
While McGlone’s $28,000 prediction was seen as more reasonable, some market experts like Mati Greenspan remained skeptical. Greenspan suggested that although $28,000 might be possible, the likelihood of it happening was still low. He emphasized the unpredictable nature of markets, stating that while forecasts could be helpful, they should not rule out other possibilities.
Fernandes Challenges McGlone’s Forecast Shift
Fernandes, who had initially criticized McGlone’s $10,000 prediction, continued to voice concerns even after the revision. He highlighted that McGlone’s updated forecast now aligned closer to his own lower-bound estimate of bitcoin’s price range. Fernandes pointed out that a reset in the $40,000 to $50,000 range remained more probable, especially without a systemic liquidity shock.
Despite the change in McGlone’s outlook, the broader discussion highlighted the potential dangers of deterministic predictions in volatile markets like crypto. Analysts warned that alarmist forecasts could influence positioning and potentially lead to unnecessary risks for investors. Fernandes emphasized the need for more balanced approaches when discussing the future of high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
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Source: https://blockonomi.com/mike-mcglone-adjusts-bitcoin-price-target-to-28000-after-backlash/