Range Tightens—Will $60K or $74K Break First?

• BTC remains under $67K as Ichimoku cloud and Fibonacci resistances reinforce bearish bias.
• Short-term momentum weak, ADX near 20, hinting at volatility compression ahead.
• Derivatives deleveraging and spot outflows signal cautious sentiment and risk reduction.

Bitcoin continues to struggle on the four-hour chart as sellers maintain control below key Fibonacci resistance. After rejecting near $89,985 at the 0.786 retracement level, BTC triggered a sharp decline that shifted short-term structure bearish. The decisive break below $83,720 confirmed downside momentum. Consequently, price accelerated toward the $60,671 swing low.

Currently, BTC trades around the $66,800 to $67,000 region. The pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing bearish bias. 

Moreover, both the Tenkan and Kijun lines sit above price and act as dynamic resistance. Momentum indicators show limited strength, with ADX hovering near 20. Hence, volatility compression may precede the next decisive move.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Immediate resistance stands at $69,320, which aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci level. A recovery above this barrier could trigger a short squeeze toward $74,918. That level marks the 0.382 retracement and represents a critical trend shift zone.

Additionally, $79,319 remains a strong supply area where sellers previously entered aggressively. Above that, $83,720 forms the major structural resistance. Bulls must reclaim that level to invalidate the current bearish sequence.

On the downside, $66,000 to $65,500 provides initial support. However, failure to hold this range increases pressure toward $63,000 and $62,000. These zones represent short-term demand pockets. Significantly, the macro swing low at $60,671 remains the broader defensive line for buyers. A breakdown below that level could invite deeper capitulation.

Open Interest and Spot Flow Signal Deleveraging

Derivatives data reveals a pronounced deleveraging cycle. Open interest previously surged from under $20 billion to nearly $90 billion during the rally phase. That expansion reflected aggressive speculative positioning. However, recent figures show a steep contraction toward $44 billion.

This decline signals large-scale position unwinding and long liquidations. Besides, the reset suggests traders reduced risk exposure after the mid-$60K retracement. The market structure now resembles pre-leverage expansion conditions.

Spot flow metrics reinforce cautious sentiment. Persistent net outflows dominated much of the recent period, indicating distribution and profit-taking. Moreover, sharp inflow spikes during pullbacks point to sell-side pressure. Although occasional positive netflow clusters suggest selective accumulation, they remain limited compared to broader outflows.

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin (BTC)

Key levels remain clearly defined as Bitcoin consolidates within a broader corrective structure.

Upside levels: $69,320 stands as the first recovery barrier. A break above this zone opens the door toward $74,918. Beyond that, $79,319 marks a strong supply area. A sustained move above $83,720, the 0.618 Fib level, would shift medium-term momentum back in favor of bulls.

Downside levels: Immediate support rests at $66,000–$65,500. Below that, $63,000–$62,000 forms a short-term demand zone. The macro swing low at $60,671 remains the key structural floor.

The broader technical picture shows BTC compressing between $60.6K and $69.3K. Price trades below the Ichimoku cloud, while the Tenkan and Kijun lines act as dynamic resistance. However, ADX near 20 signals weakening trend strength, suggesting volatility expansion may follow this contraction phase.

Will Bitcoin Move Higher?

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook depends on whether buyers can defend $65,000 and reclaim $69,320. A decisive breakout above resistance could trigger momentum toward $74,900 and potentially $79,300. Strengthening spot inflows and rising open interest would support that move.

Failure to hold $65,000, however, increases the probability of another test of $60,671. A breakdown below that level risks accelerating downside pressure and extending the correction.

For now, Bitcoin remains at a pivotal range boundary. The next directional move will likely follow a confirmed breakout from the $60K–$69K consolidation zone.