Key Insights:
- Arthur Hayes has predicted a new bullish signal for Bitcoin price
- According to the co-founder of BitMEX, the recent BTC split from tech stocks warrants attention.
- Hayes expects the wave of money printing to push Bitcoin toward new all-time highs.
Arthur Hayes said a new bullish signal for Bitcoin is building up. He argued that AI-driven layoffs could hit household incomes hard, strain consumer debt, and trigger a broader credit crunch.
He also said Bitcoin’s recent split from tech stocks deserves attention. In his view, that divergence signals stress in the fiat credit system and points to a familiar endgame: central banks stepping in with fresh liquidity. If that happens, Hayes expects the wave of money printing to push Bitcoin toward new all-time highs.
Hayes Warns Bitcoin Price’ Tech Stock Divergence Signals a “Fire Alarm” for Fiat
Arthur Hayes wrote on Wednesday that Bitcoin price now acts like a real-time warning system for the global fiat machine. He argued that because Bitcoin trades freely around the clock, it reacts faster than anything else to changes in credit conditions.
He then pointed to Bitcoin’s recent move away from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 as the key signal. In his view, that split suggests the market is bracing for a sharp hit to credit, and he warned that a major wave of credit destruction could be close.
Hayes also warned that Bitcoin’s best breakeven price from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 points to stress building under the surface. In his view, when assets that usually move together suddenly split, markets often signal trouble before headlines catch up.
He said the shift warrants a closer look because it may signal a trigger that could drain liquidity from the system. He framed that risk as a potential squeeze on fiat money, especially the U.S. dollar and the credit built around it, which he described as a deflationary shock.
Hayes argued that AI-driven layoffs could hit the economy in a very direct way. He said that once white-collar workers start losing steady paychecks, stress will first show up in consumer loans and home mortgages because many households will struggle to keep up with monthly payments.
Still, he acknowledged how big that claim sounds. Predicting a full-blown financial crisis on the back of AI-related job losses, he noted, is a sharp and controversial call.
Why AI Layoffs Could Rattle Banks Next
CBS News reported in early February that companies pointed to AI when they announced about 55,000 job cuts in 2025. That figure jumped to more than twelve times the level linked to AI just two years earlier.
Against that backdrop, Hayes argued the fallout would force policymakers back into stimulus mode. In his view, an AI-driven credit shock would push central banks to restart aggressive money creation.
He also laid out a rough scenario to show the scale. Hayes estimated that if AI displaced 20% of the roughly 72 million U.S. knowledge workers, the knock-on damage could reach about $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage losses. He said that the hit would translate into roughly a 13% write-down of U.S. commercial bank equity.
Hayes predicted that the stress would first appear at the edges of the system. He said weaker regional banks would crack before the giants, and that fear would spread quickly once depositors start moving their money. After that, he expects lending to tighten and credit markets to freeze.
He then argued the Federal Reserve would respond late and under pressure. In his view, while the Fed focuses on the wrong battles, AI-driven job losses will steadily erode bank balance sheets until officials feel forced to turn the liquidity taps back on.
Bitcoin Price Could Hit $200K, Says Hayes
Hayes said he is not only watching the Bitcoin price. He added that Maelstrom plans to rotate spare stablecoins into two altcoins once the Federal Reserve backs down and turns more supportive. He named Zcash as one of the picks.
Still, he has made big money-printing calls before. In January, he argued that the Fed would step in with fresh liquidity to ease pressure on Japan’s bond market.
Later, in December 2025, Hayes laid out an even more aggressive forecast. He said Bitcoin could run to $200,000 by March, driven by what he described as a new Fed liquidity tool called Reserve Management Purchases, which he said would function much like quantitative easing.