APT Technical Analysis Feb 18

APT’s market structure is currently showing LH/LL formation under the dominance of a downtrend; breaking the $0.9180 resistance would be a critical BOS level for trend change, while breaking $0.8830 support makes further downside likely.

Market Structure Overview

APT’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The recently formed lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern indicates dominant bearish momentum. Price is trading at $0.89, squeezed in the $0.88-$0.94 range with a 24-hour %3.69 drop. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and $1.18 resistance forms a strong upper barrier. Price not being above EMA20 ($1.09) keeps the short-term structure negative. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 10 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 2S/1R on 1W, with supports dominant but overall structure downtrend-focused. RSI at 26.75 is near oversold territory, while MACD’s positive histogram divergence gives a bullish warning, but structural integrity has not changed yet. Market structure analysis shows expected bullish continuation target of $1.4740 for higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL), but bearish breakdown points to $0.2041.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL structure formation is required. Recently, price pulled back from local highs around $0.94, but RSI oversold level and positive divergence in MACD histogram could signal potential CHoCH (Change of Character). If EMA20 ($1.09) breaks and closes above, the $0.9180 swing high could be tested for the first HH formation. However, there is no HH/HL currently; price is making lower lows (approaching $0.8830). In the bullish scenario, BOS above $0.9180 preserves HLs and seeks new highs.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend confirmed with LH/LL: As long as it stays below the last swing high $0.9180, LH continues, and $0.8830 swing low is being tested. Below it, $0.8250 and $0.7643 LLs act as support, but a break expects new lows. Supertrend is bearish and BTC downtrend pressures altcoins. Without disruption of LH/LL structure, trend reversal is distant.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) levels confirm trend changes. For bearish BOS, breaking $0.8830 (80/100 score strong swing low) is required; below it, $0.8250 and $0.7643 are tested, targeting $0.2041. Bullish BOS occurs if $0.9180 (64/100) swing high breaks and $1.18 Supertrend resistance is surpassed, transitioning to HH/HL. $1.09 EMA20 is also critical; sustained close above initiates CHoCH. These levels invalidate the structure: upward BOS invalidates downside, downward BOS invalidates upside. In MTF, 1W supports (around $0.7643) should be monitored for long-term BOS.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Last swing high $0.9180 (64/100 score) confirms LH and acts as resistance. Its break makes bullish BOS, targeting $1.09-$1.18. Previous highs around $0.94 also strengthen the LH chain; staying below these levels sustains selling pressure. Swing highs are retest points for trend continuation.

Recent Swing Lows

$0.8830 (80/100) is the most critical swing low, defending the current LL. If it holds, retest to $0.9180 for bounce; on break, $0.8250 (60/100) and $0.7643 (65/100) LLs come into play. These points are supports; holds create opportunities for HL, breaks extend downtrend with new LLs. Swing lows determine reversal potential.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $67,090 in downtrend (+%0.17 24h), Supertrend bearish and rising dominance pressures altcoins. If BTC supports $66,555-$62,910-$60,000 break, APT’s $0.8830 defense weakens, accelerating LLs with bearish correlation. If BTC breaks $68,062 resistance, relief comes for APT, supporting $0.9180 BOS. Monitor BTC key levels: Staying below reinforces APT downtrend. Follow BTC structure for APT Spot Analysis and APT Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish with LH/LL dominance; $0.8830 hold brings short-term bounce, break brings downtrend continuation. For bullish, $0.9180-$1.18 BOS is required, supported by BTC recovery. Structure is dynamic; monitor BOS levels. Educational note: HH/HL defines uptrend, LH/LL defines downtrend – changes with BOS, CHoCH is early warning. (Word count: 1125)