Leadership change seen as policy neutral – Nomura

Nomura’s Senior European Economist Andrzej Szczepaniak notes reports that Christine Lagarde may leave her role as ECB President early so that EU leaders can appoint a successor before the French presidential election, as part of a broader effort to “future proof” the ECB from far-right influence. Despite potential early departures, Nomura expects ECB interest rates to remain unchanged through 2025.

Lagarde exit seen with limited policy impact

“The FT is reporting that Lagarde will leave her position as ECB president early “to give Macron and Merz the chance to pick her successor before French presidential election”, in a similar vein to Villeroy.”

“Bloomberg already reported on 16 February that EU governments may want to fast-track the decision process for ECB Executive Board member replacements.”

“The intent would be to “future proof” the ECB from the far-right, under the assumption National Rally win the French presidential election.”

“The impact on ECB decision making of Lagarde being replaced early would be very limited.”

“Whether it is Lagarde or someone else at the helm, the ECB will leave rates unchanged this year (and our expectation is that rates will be left unchanged next year, too).”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)