DOT is trading in a short-term downtrend and continues to remain in a weak position below EMA20. Although there are slight recovery signals from the positive histogram in MACD in momentum indicators, the overall technical structure gives dominant bearish signals and is approaching critical support levels.
Executive Summary
Polkadot (DOT) is trading at $1.36 as of February 18, 2026, showing a slight decline of -0.29% in the last 24 hours. Under short-term downtrend dominance, the price is positioned below EMA20 ($1.44) while Supertrend gives a bearish signal; RSI at 38.88 is close to oversold territory but MACD’s positive histogram carries a potential bounce signal. Critical supports at $1.3415 and below are preparing to be tested, while resistance stands strong at $1.3825. Bitcoin’s bearish trend poses additional risk for altcoins; overall outlook is cautious, with high risk of downward breakout.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
DOT’s current trend structure can be defined as a clear downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the price has failed to break the recent highs formed in the last weeks and has consistently shown lower lows/lower highs formation. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode and $1.66 acts as a prominent resistance level. Short-term momentum is weak; the price remaining below EMA20 ($1.44) reinforces the short-term bearish bias. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) has identified 8 strong levels: 3 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 1S/2R distribution on 1W, indicating overall downward fragility. On the long-term weekly chart, the correction phase continuing since the 2021 peaks dominates, but around $1.10 carries major support potential.
Structural Levels
Main structural supports: $1.3415 (score 67/100, near-term swing low), $1.2480 (62/100, medium-term test level), $1.1010 (60/100, weekly low target). Resistances: $1.3825 (75/100, strong short-term barrier, recent range high). These levels align with Fibonacci retracements (0.618 $1.34, 0.786 $1.25) and pivot points; breakout probabilities are high with multi-TF confluence.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 38.88, approaching oversold territory (below 30) indicating reduced selling pressure but no reversal signal yet. 14-day RSI divergence should be monitored; as price makes new lows, RSI shows potential higher low formation. MACD shows positive histogram expansion signaling bullish momentum – signal line crossover is near, which could create confluence for a short-term bounce. Stochastic %K around 25, bullish cross with %D expected. Overall momentum: Mixed, with slight bullish divergence against bearish structure.
Trend Indicators
EMA crossovers are bearish: Price below EMA20 ($1.44), EMA50 ($1.52), and EMA200 ($1.68); death cross (EMA20
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Support analysis is comprehensive: $1.3415 (67/100) is the most critical near-term level, aligning with volume profile POC – if it holds, bounce to $1.38 possible. On breakout, $1.2480 (62/100, 0.5 Fib) and $1.1010 (60/100, 2025 low extension) targeted. Resistance: $1.3825 (75/100) strong, daily high + 0.236 Fib; if broken, $1.44 EMA20 can be tested. 8 strong multi-TF levels: strong 3S cluster on 1D, 2R major on 1W. Volatility low (ATR 0.05), increasing importance of levels – fakeout risk low.
Volume and Market Participation
24-hour volume $81.27M, slightly down from previous days but sufficient for downtrend – selling volume dominant, OBV shows negative divergence (volume not decreasing as price falls). VWAP flat at $1.36, price below VWAP confirms weakness. CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) negative, smart money outflow signal. Multi-TF volume: No daily volume spike, weekly contracting – silence before consolidation, breakout should be confirmed with volume. Altcoin volume/BTC volume ratio low, BTC dominance increase negative for alts.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward profile bearish biased: Bullish target $1.9743 (score 30/100, R:R 1:2.2 upside from $1.36), bearish $0.4792 (22/100, R:R 1:3.5 downside). Main risks: Break of $1.3415 leading to cascade effect to $1.10, BTC weakness amplification. Volatility risk medium (low ATR), liquidity risk high (thin orderbook). Positioning: Short bias, stop above $1.39; for long, $1.38R confirm + volume required. Overall risk score: High (7/10), cautious approach recommended – max 2% risk per trade.
Bitcoin Correlation
DOT shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85, 30D); BTC in downtrend at $68,154 with Supertrend bearish – caution for altcoins. BTC supports $68,050 / $65,415 / $62,910 breakout would push DOT below $1.25. BTC resistances $69,162 / $71,708 should be monitored; BTC bounce could trigger DOT short-covering. Dominance increase (BTC.D up) creates alts outflow – for DOT, BTC below $68K major risk, above $70K relief rally opportunity. Detailed BTC scenarios available in DOT Spot Analysis and DOT Futures Analysis.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
DOT’s technical chart is characterized by dominant downtrend: Structural weakness, position below EMA, Supertrend bearish, and negative BTC context make $1.34 support critical. Although MACD bullish divergence and RSI oversold carry bounce potential, no volume confirmation – short-term retrial to $1.38 resistance expected, if fails $1.25 target. Strategy: Bearish setup priority, short below $1.3415 (target $1.2480, stop $1.39); for long, $1.3825R + MACD cross confirm. Long-term hold at $1.10 could be major bottom, but current risk/reward short biased. Investors should track levels on DOT Spot and Futures platforms. Professional risk management essential – market volatile, news flow should be monitored.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.