GNO Technical Analysis Feb 14

GNO is maintaining its uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, but $129.40 swing low is critical support. For structure break, watch for BOS above $137.96 or CHoCH below.

Market Structure Overview

GNO’s current market structure is maintaining its short- and medium-term uptrend character. With price trading at $132.67, it moved in the $128.90-$136.17 range with a 1.50% rise in the last 24 hours. Being positioned above EMA20 ($125.51) gives a short-term bullish signal, but a cautious approach is necessary due to the Supertrend bearish signal ($158.76 resistance). RSI at 55.21 is in the neutral zone, while MACD’s positive histogram supports momentum. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, 13 strong levels were identified on 1D/3D/1W: 3 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 2S/4R balance on 1W. This indicates a balanced but bullish-leaning structure. Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern dominates; consolidation is observed around the recent swing high of $137.96 and swing low of $129.40. Protecting HLs is critical for trend continuation; otherwise, lower highs (LH) formation increases reversal risk.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

The uptrend is confirmed with the classic HH/HL structure. The recent rise from $120.93 swing low to $136.17 formed new HL and HH. This shows buyers are in control. Closures above EMA20 strengthen the short-term bullish bias. The expansion of the MACD histogram positively confirms momentum in favor of HH/HL. HL pattern is also observed on the 1W timeframe, indicating the strength of the medium-term trend. BOS above $137.96 triggers trend continuation with a new HH and opens the path to $157.48-$165.75 resistances. Bullish target $210.56 looks accessible without structure breakdown.

Downtrend Risk

For the bearish scenario, LH/LL pattern is awaited. A drop below $129.40 swing low would be the first CHoCH signal and test LL toward $120.93. Supertrend bearish ($158.76 resistance) may limit upper targets. RSI divergence below 55 or MACD crossover accelerates LH formation. 3 resistance levels on 1D create pressure; rejection at $137.96 forms LH, starting downtrend. Critical threshold: Break below $129.40 activates bearish target $73.50.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: Daily close above $137.96 (81/100 score swing high) forms new HH and opens to $157.48. This confirms uptrend continuation. Bearish BOS/CHoCH: Daily close below $129.40 (78/100) breaks HL and signals transition to LH/LL. Second level $120.93 (76/100) should be watched for deep correction. In MTF, 1W resistances (4R) dominate, but 1D supports (3S) are solid. $108.75 (60/100) is major support; break here leads to full reversal. BOSs indicate momentum shift beyond swing points – educationally, assuming trend without BOS is risky.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

$137.96 (81/100): Strongest recent swing high, tested and rejected. This is the BOS level; breakout confirms uptrend. $157.48 (69/100): Medium-term resistance, HH target. $165.75 (66/100): Psychological and MTF resistance, major target. These swing highs measure buyer strength – rejection forms LH, breakout extends HH.

Recent Swing Lows

$129.40 (78/100): Current swing low, recent bottom. Protecting it maintains HL structure, break triggers CHoCH. $120.93 (76/100): Strong support, previous HL. $108.75 (60/100): Major low, deep support. Swing lows define the trend base; HL continuation is bullish, LL is bearish shift. Price defended $129.40 by bottoming at $128.90, this is bullish defense.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC $69,696 (+0.92%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. Main supports $68,796-$65,415, resistances $71,248-$75,157. BTC dominance rise crushes altcoins; GNO highly correlated to BTC, if BTC drops below $68k, GNO $129.40 break risk rises. If BTC makes BOS at $71k, GNO rally to $137.96 triggers. BTC caution mode may limit GNO uptrend – BTC levels should be prioritized for alts. Details for GNO Spot Analysis and GNO Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structure is bullish HH/HL, but cautious due to BTC downtrend and Supertrend bearish. Uptrend valid as long as HL above $129.40 is protected, BOS at $137.96 brings continuation. Downside break starts LH/LL with CHoCH. MTF balance (13 levels) ready for volatility. Educational note: Read structure with swings and BOS/CHoCH, indicators are supportive. Current $132.67 consolidating in $129-138 range; breakout expected. Risk management: $129.40 stop, $137.96 target. Market structures are dynamic, monitor continuously.