QNT showed a strong rebound above the short-term EMA20 despite the general downtrend and reached the $73.20 level with an 8% rise. Momentum indicators are giving neutral-bullish signals, critical resistance at $74.52 and overall risk high; cautious approach recommended.
Executive Summary
QNT is staging a short-term rally within the main downtrend; price holding above EMA20 ($70.05) with RSI at 53.52 neutral, MACD providing bullish momentum with positive histogram. However, Supertrend is bearish and high-quality resistance at $74.52 will be tested; as an altcoin, sensitive to BTC downside, risk/reward balance positive for bullish targets but overall market structure requires caution.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
QNT’s overall trend direction is downward; clear bearish structures dominate higher timeframes (1W, 3D). Price rose 8.06% in the last 24 hours from the $67.11-$75.02 range to $73.20, but this move does not change the main trend. Supertrend indicator giving bearish signal and forming $88.74 resistance. In short-term (1D) view, sustained hold above EMA20 ($70.05) signals bullish short-term momentum. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D: 2 supports/3 resistances, 3D: 2S/2R, 1W: 4S/3R) identifies total 15 strong levels; this emphasizes structural imbalance and potential volatility.
Structural Levels
Main structural supports stand out at $72.79 (score 63/100) and $65.32 (62/100); these levels align with recent swing lows and Fibonacci retracements. On the resistance side, $74.52 (84/100) is the most critical barrier, followed by $80.90 (66/100) and $87.44 (62/100). These levels are derived from volume profiles and pivot points, and breakouts could precede trend changes.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 53.52 in neutral zone; showing balanced momentum instead of approaching overbought, indicating the rally is consolidating. MACD histogram positive and bullish crossover completed; sustained hold above signal line confirms short-term buying pressure. Secondary momentum indicators like Stochastic and CCI also provide neutral-bullish confluence in 50-60 band, but divergence risk exists in the overall downtrend.
Trend Indicators
EMA clustering mixed: Price bullish short-term above EMA20, but bearish medium/long-term pressure below EMA50 (~$75.20) and EMA200 ($82.50). Supertrend in bearish mode signaling $88.74 resistance; ADX at 25 indicating medium-strength trend, but -DI maintaining dominance over +DI. In Ichimoku cloud, price attempting breakout above cloud, Tenkan/Kijun crossover carries bullish potential.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: $72.79 first line of defense (heavily tested, high volume); breakdown to $65.32 main base, aligning with 1W lows and Fibonacci 0.618. Resistance: $74.52 strongest (84 score, recent high and pivot); above it $80.90-$87.44 fib extensions. Multi-TF confluence: 1D resistance $74.52 overlaps with 3D, support $65.32 with 1W. Breakout scenario: Above $74.52 opens path to $80, below $72.79 could trigger fast drop to $65. Volume profile VPVR shows high volume node at $72-75, POC near $73.50.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume at 12.02M$ showing increase (+~20% vs previous), confirming buying participation aligned with price rally. OBV rising, but divergence possible in overall downtrend. VWAP daily above $71.80, suggesting institutional flows. Spot/futures volume ratio balanced, long/short imbalance mildly bullish (52% long). Warning against low-volume breakouts: High risk of fake breakout without real participation.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward: Bullish target $108.37 (score 28, ~48% gain), bearish $38.70 (score 22, ~47% drop). From current $73.20, R:R bullish scenario 1:2+ (stop $72.79, target $80+), bearish 1:1.5. Main risks: BTC downtrend (dominance rise crushes altcoins), overall market volatility, lack of news flow. Position size limited to 1-2% risk; longs wait for $74.52 breakout, shorts for $72.79 breakdown. Volatility (ATR 4.5%) medium-high, trailing stop recommended.
Bitcoin Correlation
QNT, as an altcoin, highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); BTC at $69,621 (+3.82%) in downtrend with Supertrend bearish, supports $68,926-$65,415-$60,000. If BTC fails to break $70,166 resistance, QNT rally ends; $75,160 breakout triggers altcoin rally. Dominance rise (BTC Supertrend bearish) pressures QNT down; watch: BTC below 68k to QNT $65, above 70k eyes $80. Details in QNT Spot Analysis and QNT Futures Analysis.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
QNT technical chart offers hope with short-term bullish bounce, but main downtrend and BTC dependency mandate caution. $74.52 breakout with multi-TF confluence opens $80-87 targets, while $72.79 breakdown paths to $65. Momentum confluence (MACD+RSI) supportive, long opportunities with volume confirmation but risk management critical. Strategy: Long at $73.50 dip, stop $72.50, target $80/$108; short on $74.50 rejection, stop $75.50, target $65/$38. Overall outlook neutral-bullish short-term, bearish medium-term; flexibility based on market structure recommended. Continue this analysis via QNT Spot and Futures links.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.