XRP retraces 61% from its peak – But THIS signal hints at deeper trouble

Ripple’s XRP became a market standout after posting one of its sharpest rallies following progress in its long-running SEC case.

Between November 2024 and July 2025, XRP surged from roughly $0.40 to an all-time high near $3.66. That move ranked among the most aggressive expansions across large-cap cryptocurrencies.

Those gains have since retraced sharply.

At press time, XRP traded near $1.44, down about 61% from its peak. Market structure suggested downside risks remained active.

Capital exits gain momentum

Ripple [XRP] recorded rising capital outflows over recent sessions, adding sustained pressure to price action.

The Realized Cap Impulse, which tracks net capital entering or leaving the network, turned decisively lower. The indicator slid toward negative territory, signaling dominant outflows.

That move reflected a behavioral shift. Market participants appeared focused on profit realization and capital preservation as trend confidence weakened.

Source: Alphractal

Having said that, Spot exchange data showed a different trend.

XRP logged consistent weekly Exchange Outflows since the week beginning the 8th of September 2025. During the latest week, roughly $89 million worth of XRP exited exchanges.

That divergence suggested retail holders largely maintained exposure, possibly anticipating a recovery that has yet to materialize.

On-chain metrics flash a warning

On-chain valuation metrics added further caution.

The MVRV Z-Score hovered near the zero line, a level often marking major regime transitions. Alphractal described this zone as decisive for XRP’s broader trend.

“MVRV Z-Score is sitting right on the key level that defines either a bear market continuation or the last on-chain support.”

Source: Alphractal

A sustained break below zero could intensify distribution.

While such conditions often precede long-term bottoms, near-term selling pressure typically increases.

A similar setup appeared in the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric.

NUPL also hovered near its transition line.

A drop into negative territory would indicate most XRP holders moving into unrealized losses, a scenario that historically accelerates exit behavior.

Chart structure points to a $1 risk

From a technical perspective, XRP remained vulnerable unless it firmly defended its current demand zone.

That area still contained clustered bids, leaving room for a reaction bounce.

Even so, weak upside follow-through raised the risk of a deeper decline.

Failure to hold support could open a move toward the $1 region, aligning with the next major demand zone. Such a drop would represent roughly a 72% retracement from XRP’s all-time high.

Source: TradingView

On top of that, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator continued trending lower, approaching its April 2025 lows. The reading suggested persistent distribution pressure.

Still, the indicator remained positive, implying earlier accumulation had not fully unwound. That balance left XRP at a critical juncture.

For now, sellers retained control, and XRP’s response around key support levels may determine whether stabilization emerges or downside extends.

Final Thoughts

• Capital outflows strengthened even as some spot holders continued accumulating XRP.
• This divergence raised a key question: are buyers positioning early, or misreading broader market risk?