BCH Weekly Analysis Feb 5

BCH is showing a weak trajectory at the $511.80 level with a 3.34% decline on a weekly basis, and the main downtrend maintains its dominance. Market structure is giving distribution phase signals, BTC’s bearish momentum is increasing pressure on altcoins.

BCH in the Weekly Market Summary

BCH traded in the $508.80 – $542.60 range last week and suffered a 3.34% loss at the $511.80 price. Volume profile stayed at the $361.64M level, indicating low buyer interest. The overall market is dominated by downtrend; RSI at 35.43 is approaching the oversold region, MACD shows a negative histogram, and price is trading below EMA20 ($558.74). In the bigger picture, BCH is in a position indicating the distribution phase in its long-term cyclical structure: Bitcoin dominance is rising while altcoin rotation remains weak. This week, critical support tests are in focus for detailed BCH spot analysis. For position traders, the trend filter gives a bearish signal, and $618.86 resistance stands as the main obstacle. In the macro context, there is no specific news flow for BCH, but the general crypto market is under BTC-focused pressure.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear downtrend, supported by lower highs and lower lows formation on 1W/1M timeframes. The main trendline has broken downward from around $730, and momentum indicators (MACD histogram negative expansion) confirm the downtrend remains intact. Cyclically, the market appears to have completed the transition from the accumulation phase at the end of 2025 to the distribution stage: High-volume rejections above $542. The trend remains solid; as long as price holds above the $494.56 support, there is a chance for short-term recovery, but the overall structure is bearish. For portfolio managers, long positions are risky in this phase; if monthly closes drop below $467, new lows are expected.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Volume profile and On-Balance Volume (OBV) analyses show distribution patterns: High-volume rejections in the $532-$558 band indicate smart money selling. There are no accumulation phase features (low volatility, increasing volume bases); instead, expanding range and decreasing buyer volume align with the Wyckoff distribution model. The volume node around $511 might suggest accumulation, but in the overall context, this test could be deceptive. Position traders should monitor OBV divergences: If absent, distribution continues. BCH futures market data shows negative funding rates, squeezing longs.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, there is 2 support/3 resistance confluence: Price tested and rejected $512.30 resistance, bearish short-term trend below EMA20. RSI at 35.43 is oversold without divergence, but MACD confirms bearish cross. Market structure is broken; $494.56 daily pivot support is critical. Confluence with 1D Supertrend bearish and below Ichimoku cloud – recovery requires breakout above $532.60. Decreasing volume reinforces weak momentum.

Weekly Chart View

On the weekly, strong confluence at 2S/3R levels: Price below 20W EMA, inside downtrend channel. Weekly RSI neutral-bearish, OBV in downtrend. $558 resistance is the main inflection point; if unbroken, it opens path to $467. Long-term structure depends on weekly candle closes: Red candles strengthen distribution. Monitor multi-TF alignment for BCH and other analyses.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: $494.5578 (73/100 score, 1D/3D confluence), $467.2000 (60/100, weekly base). Resistances: $532.6016 (90/100, strongest), $558.0975 (70/100), $512.3000 (63/100, local). These levels define direction: Break above $532 targets upside to $730 (R/R 1:3+), break below $494 targets downside to $309 (high risk). Volume spikes and BTC movements will be triggers.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

Bullish Case

Close above $532.60 activates bullish scenario: First target $558, then $618-$730. Long positions above $494, stop below $490. Optimize R/R with trailing stop at EMA20. BTC above $73k provides confluence supporting altcoin rotation. Position size 2-3%, weekly target 15+ return.

Bearish Case

Break below $494.56 confirms bearish: Shorts from $512, targets $467-$309. Stop above $520. High R/R (1:4+), caution in leveraged futures. Short bias prioritized in distribution phase, enter on volume increase signal.

Bitcoin Correlation

BCH shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC at $70,321 with -7.50% drop, supertrend bearish, pressuring altcoins. If BTC supports at $70,076/$66,748 break, BCH tests $494. If BTC resistances above $73,158 recover, BCH joins rotation. As BTC dominance rises, BCH remains weak – key BTC levels: Below $70k cascade risk.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week, watch the $494-$532 range; $532 breakout signals bullish shift, $494 break signals deep downside. BTC $70k dynamics and volume spikes will trigger. Position traders focus on risk management, follow news flow. Long-term trend down, be patient.