How Senate Democrats pushed CLARITY Act approval odds to 72%

The market appeared optimistic again that the crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, would become law this year, following a recent meeting of Senate Democrats. 

According to the prediction site Polymarket, the chance of such a progress shot up to 72% on the 4th of February.   

Source: Polymarket

This was not surprising, going by reports that the meeting was ‘positive’ and ‘productive Democrat meeting to date,’ according to journalist Eleanor Terrett, citing people present at the talks. Terrett added, 

“While members still have definitive asks, the takeaway from the meeting was that the effort, thought to be on life support just a few weeks ago, is far from dead.”

Is the crypto bill back on track?

Another reporter, Sander Lutz, echoed a similar stance but singled out the crypto lobby’s influence ahead of the November elections, a key driver for pro-crypto Democrats. 

Citing a Senate source, Lutz said, 

“Chuck Schumer was there, and is ‘very desperate’ to get the bill over the finish line, given crypto PAC Fairshake’s announcement of a $193 million midterms war chest.”

The update follows an earlier White House-led negotiation between the crypto industry and bankers’ trade unions to restart the previously stalled discussion on the bill. 

The key deal-breaker remains the stablecoin yield, and the Trump Administration gave stakeholders until the end of February to reach a compromise. 

Although the specifics of the proposed ‘compromise’ remain unclear, recent developments indicate a collective effort to advance the market structure bill. At the same time, several crypto leaders have expressed optimism about the potential for meaningful progress.

According to Mike Belshe, CEO of crypto infrastructure platform and custody provider Bitgo, stakeholders should get ‘everything right’ on the bill. 

“White House set an end-of-February deadline for stablecoin yield agreement. Clock’s ticking. The industry needs clear rules—and fast. Getting this right matters.”

Meanwhile, the market expectations for the bill’s passage have surged from 50/50 at the end of January to over 70% in early February.

At the time of writing, however, the odds briefly slid to 64% as the market digested details of the Senate Democrats’ meeting. 

If the stablecoin yield deal is reached this month, then another Senate Banking Committee vote on the bill could be feasible in March. 

That said, Nansen and Grayscale analysts believe a positive update and progress on the CLARITY Act could help stabilize the ongoing crypto rout. 

Final Thoughts 

• Senate Democrats’ meeting renewed overall market optimism about the crypto bill’s chance of becoming law this year. 
• However, the stablecoin yield deal remains the key potential deal-breaker for the bill’s progress.