RAY is approaching the critical support zone ($0.6360) in a strong downtrend, with RSI at 24.60 signaling oversold; however, MACD is negative and it’s failing to hold above EMA20 ($0.89), bearish outlook persists.
Executive Summary
RAY/USD is trading at $0.65 as of February 4, 2026, having experienced a 4.56% decline in 24 hours. The overall technical picture is bearish: Supertrend resistance at $0.91, price below EMA20 ($0.89), RSI at 24.60 oversold but MACD negative histogram fails to support momentum. Critical support at $0.6360 (79/100 score), resistance at $0.7173. Bitcoin’s downtrend is creating pressure on altcoins; risk/reward ratio unfavorable toward bearish target ($0.1024). Long-term recovery requires close above $0.7829.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
RAY is in a clear downtrend across 1D and higher timeframes. Price has declined nearly 70% from recent highs, retreating to the lower band of the main channel. Supertrend indicator giving bearish signal and positioning $0.91 as resistance. Closures below short-term EMA20 ($0.89) and EMA50 ($1.02) show no signal of trend reversal. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) identifies 9 strong levels: 1D with 1 support/4 resistances, 3D with 1S/1R, 1W with 2S/2R. This requires breaking multiple resistances for upward movement.
Structural Levels
Main structural supports: $0.6360 (high-volume pivot, 79/100 score). Lower supports extend to around $0.50 from 1W timeframe. Resistance layers: $0.7173 (63/100), $0.7829 (63/100), and $1.1277 (63/100, bullish target). These levels align with past swing high/lows and Fibonacci retracements. Upward movement cannot be sustained without trendline break.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14): 24.60 in oversold territory (below 30), warning of short-term bounce potential but no divergence. MACD: Bearish crossover active, histogram negative and expanding below zero line; momentum supports downside. Stochastic %K 15.2, %D 22.4 – both oversold, may signal local bottom. CCI -180 confirms oversold. Overall momentum confluence bearish but oversold conditions imply approaching reversal.
Trend Indicators
EMAs: Price below EMA20 ($0.89), EMA50 ($1.02), and EMA200 ($1.45); death cross (EMA20
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: Primary $0.6360 (79/100, 1D/3D confluence, volume base). Secondary $0.58-$0.60 (1W support). Break below targets $0.50 and ultimate $0.1024 bearish target (22 score). Resistance: $0.69 daily high, $0.7173 (63/100, near EMA20), $0.7829 (Fib 0.382), $1.1277 (Fib 0.618, 53 score bullish target). These levels supported by volume profile and order blocks. Failure to hold $0.6360 carries high cascade risk.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume $1.82M, below average (20% low); declining volume on downside indicates weak sellers. OBV negative divergence: Price making new lows while OBV holds higher, accumulation building. VWAP above $0.67 signals institutional interest. Futures open interest low, spot dominance limits speculative moves. Resistance break impossible without volume increase; volume test at $0.6360 critical.
Risk Assessment
From current $0.65, bullish target $1.1277 offers RR 1:1.73 (73% up), bearish $0.1024 at 1:4.1 (84% down) – net bearish asymmetry. Main risk: BTC downside correlation causing altcoin cascade, $0.6360 break. Positive scenario: RSI bounce tests $0.7173 (stop $0.63). Negative: Volume-less drop to $0.50. Volatility 5.2% (average), max drawdown risk 15%. Wait for $0.7173 for longs, short on $0.69+ break. Detailed data available in RAY Spot Analysis and RAY Futures Analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $73,212 (-3.26%), in downtrend; Supertrend bearish. RAY correlates 0.85 with BTC – if BTC $71,888 support breaks, RAY $0.6360 test accelerates. BTC resistance $73,937 failure increases general altcoin pressure. Watch: BTC below $68,853 = RAY cascade risk; BTC above $76,927 = altcoin rotation. Rising dominance (52%+) against RAY.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
RAY’s technical chart shows bearish dominance: Oversold momentum offers short-term bounce potential ($0.7173 target), but trend remains bearish via Supertrend and EMAs. Critical support $0.6360 – hold leads to $0.7829 rally, break opens path to $0.50. Aggressive longs risky without BTC recovery; short bias prevails (RR favorable). Long-term: HODL signal above $1.1277. Strategy: Dip buyers long $0.6360 (TP $0.7173, SL $0.62); trend followers short $0.69 break. No market news flow, stay technical-focused. This holistic view supported by multi-indicator confluence – integrate spot and futures analysis for decisions.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.