The United States (US) Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January is scheduled to be published today at 15:00 GMT.
The ISM report is expected to show that the service sector activity expanded again, but at a moderate pace. The Services PMI is seen at 53.5, lower than 54.4 in December. Investors will pay close attention to the Services PMI data as the related sector accounts for two-thirds of the US economy.
Apart from the Services PMI, investors will also focus on sub-components of data, such as Employment Index, New Orders Index, and Prices Paid. ISM Services Employment Index is expected to come in higher at 52.3 from the previous reading of 52.0.
Weaker-than-projected US ISM Services PMI data would prompt expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term, as officials have remained concerned over the economic outlook. However, better figures would be a relief for Fed officials, but will unlikely act as a major drag on Fed dovish expectations due to weak job market conditions.
How could US ISM Services PMI data affect EUR/USD?
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EUR/USD trades slightly lower at around 1.1809 at the time of writing. The major currency pair holds just above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1794, keeping a modest upward bias intact.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.8 (neutral) reflects balanced momentum after recent consolidation.
Measured from the 1.1578 low to the 1.2074 high, the 50% Fibonacci (Fibo) retracement at 1.1826 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.1768 define a nearby pivot band that supports pullbacks, keeping the broader recovery structure in focus.
A clear push back above the 50% retracement at 1.1826 would re-open topside scope and put the recovery back on track. Looking up, the round level of 1.1900 would be an initial hurdle on the way up.
On the downside, failure to hold the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.1768 would signal fading momentum and expose a deeper correction towards 78.6% Fibo retracement at 1.1684. Until either trigger gives way, rangebound trade around the mid-1.18s could persist.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector, which makes up most of the economy. The indicator is obtained from a survey of supply executives across the US based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
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Looking up, the round level of 1.1900 would be an initial hurdle on the way up.