NEAR Technical Analysis Feb 4

NEAR Protocol is trading in a critical squeeze zone at $1.19; while RSI at 27.69 in the oversold region offers recovery potential, the overall downtrend and Bitcoin’s weak performance make both scenarios possible.

Current Market Situation

NEAR is trading at $1.19 with a 0.58% decline over the last 24 hours and is squeezed in the $1.12-$1.23 range. Volume remains moderate at $173.51M, while the overall trend continues downward. RSI at 27.69 signals oversold conditions, increasing the likelihood of a short-term reaction rally. However, the MACD histogram is negative and shows a bearish crossover, with price remaining below EMA20 ($1.40). The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, and $1.48 resistance forms a strong barrier. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identified 15 strong levels on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: Supports show 1D 2S/3R, 3D 1S/3R, 1W 4S/4R balance. Key supports are $1.0913 (80/100 score) and $1.1720 (64/100), while resistances stand out at $1.2070 (64/100), $1.2980 (65/100), and $1.8925 (60/100). This structure provides traders with clear invalidation criteria for both upside and downside breakouts.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How This Scenario Plays Out?

For the upside scenario, a clear break and close above $1.2070 resistance is required first. If this breakout is supported by RSI turning up from the oversold region, momentum could increase. Then, $1.2980 should be tested; volume increase and a bullish crossover on MACD would strengthen the scenario. Supertrend turning green and breaking EMA20 ($1.40) would confirm a short-term trend reversal. Bitcoin breaking $77,830 resistance could also trigger an altcoin rally. In this scenario, protecting the $1.1720 support is critical for a real trend reversal from oversold conditions rather than a “dead cat bounce”; otherwise, invalidation occurs.

Target Levels

First target is the $1.40 EMA20 zone, second is $1.48 Supertrend resistance, and third is $1.7901 (30-point target). In a broader rally, it could extend to $1.8925. Risk/reward ratio from a $1.19 entry is approximately 1:3. Traders can consider long positions waiting for the $1.2070 breakout, but should protect with a stop-loss below $1.1720.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario is triggered by breaking the strong $1.0913 support (80/100 score). A close below this level accelerates with MACD going more negative and RSI approaching 20. Bitcoin losing $75,692 support increases correlated selling pressure on NEAR. Failed upside attempts without volume increase would reinforce the decline away from EMA20. Supertrend remaining bearish and overall market fear (BTC dominance increase) are among the risk factors. Early break of the $1.1720 intermediate support gives an early warning signal.

Protection Levels

First protection below $1.0913, second in the already tested $1.1720 zone. Main target $0.5214 (22-point bearish target). For short positions, invalidation above $1.2070 offers 1:2 R/R from around $1.19 entry. Traders should watch the $1.0913 breakout for short opportunities but close positions on a close above $1.2980.

Which Scenario to Watch?

The decision point lies between $1.2070 resistance and $1.0913 support. For upside, watch for a high-volume close above $1.2070 + RSI 40+, for downside a close below $1.0913 + MACD negative expansion. Use volume profile and candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing vs. bearish breakdown) for confirmation. Daily 1D closes are critical; BTC movements are leading indicators. Follow additional data from NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $76,129 with a 3% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish and dominance increase create pressure on altcoins. NEAR is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC holds $75,692 support, NEAR stabilizes, but a break pushes to $72,983 and drags NEAR below $1.09. Conversely, BTC breaking $77,830 resistance strengthens NEAR’s upside scenario. BTC supports $75,692 / $72,983 / $61,211, resistances $77,830 / $81,773 / $89,425 should be monitored – NEAR traders should prioritize the BTC chart.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios are valid for NEAR; oversold RSI supports upside, downtrend and BTC weakness support downside. Monitoring points: $1.2070 / $1.0913 breakouts, RSI reversal, MACD histogram, and BTC $75K-$77K band. Traders should plan according to their risk tolerance and remain cautious against volatility. Weekly closes will be trend-determining. Visit NEAR spot and futures pages for detailed charts.