LINK Technical Analysis Feb 4

LINK is trading in a LH/LL downtrend structure among altcoins; pressure around $9.60, a break of $8.97 support would signal trend continuation, while a BOS above $10.10 could signal a change.

Market Structure Overview

LINK’s current market structure clearly reflects the downtrend. Price is consolidating at the $9.60 level, with a 24-hour change of -%1.13 under negative pressure. Staying below EMA20 ($11.24) and higher EMAs confirms the short-term bearish structure. Supertrend signal is bearish and $11.74 resistance is foreseeable. RSI at 27.77 is approaching the oversold zone, while MACD’s negative histogram supports downside momentum. In MTF structure (1D/3D/1W), there are 14 strong levels: 1D with 2 supports/2 resistances, 3D with 2S/3R, 1W with 2S/4R weighted resistance structure reinforces the downtrend character. The market is in LH/LL (Lower Highs/Lower Lows) pattern; recent swing lows are breaking to lower levels, indicating structural bearishness.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL (Higher Highs/Higher Lows) structure is needed, but it’s not visible yet. RSI’s 27.77 oversold level could offer hope for a short-term HL formation – for example, if it holds above the $9.44 swing low. Bullish continuation target is $13.74, but this must be confirmed by a BOS above $10.097 swing high. For now, no breakout above EMAs; $9.61 local resistance is critical. If price makes $10.10 as HH, an uptrend start is possible with HL, but BTC correlation is risky.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend is clear with LH/LL: LH formed from recent swing high $10.097 to $9.61, swing lows made LL from $9.44 to $8.97. This is classic bearish structure; price range narrowing at $9.08-$9.90, lower boundary being tested. MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance at $11.74. LL continuation opens bearish target $4.89 with $8.97 break. Oversold RSI may react, but without CHoCH (Change of Character), downtrend dominates.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) is the key to trend change. Bearish BOS: break of $8.97 swing low (score 79/100) – this creates new LL and invalidates 1D/3D structure, target $4.89. Bullish BOS: close above $10.097 swing high (70/100) – turns LH to HH, then $11.74 Supertrend target. Local $9.61 resistance (62/100) first test; if not broken, LH continues. In MTF, 1W resistance weighted, so strong volume required for upside BOS. These levels invalidate structure: downtrend invalidation above $10.10, uptrend invalidation below $8.97.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $10.097 (70/100, main LH level), $9.61 (62/100, local resistance). These act as resistance in downtrend; $10.097 BOS is CHoCH signal. Price near $9.61 at $9.60 – rejection confirms LH, break starts HL. These points align with fib retracement; %61.8 resistance around $9.90 should be watched.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $8.97 (79/100, strong support), $9.44 (63/100). $8.97 is 1D/3D MTF support; break is bearish BOS, hold potential HL. $9.44 local support – close to current $9.08 low test. These lows are critical for trend reversal; if LL series continues, structural downtrend strengthens.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $76,229 (-%2.71), in downtrend; Supertrend bearish, supports at $75,755/$72,946. LINK, highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC below $75k intensifies LH/LL in altcoins. If BTC resistance $77,862 not broken, LINK $8.97 risk increases. BTC recovery ($79k+ ) supports LINK bullish BOS – monitor BTC levels for LINK Spot Analysis and LINK Futures Analysis. Dominance rise amplifies altcoin pressure.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominant, MTF resistance weighted. Oversold RSI may give short-term reaction, but trend doesn’t change without $10.10 BOS. Downtrend continuation confirmed by $8.97 break; upside scenario needs strong volume and BTC support. Market structures are dynamic – swing levels and BOS are key. Educational note: HH/HL for uptrend, LH/LL for downtrend; BOS breaks structure, CHoCH shows momentum change. Careful trading, risk management essential. (Word count: ~1050)