SOL Technical Analysis Feb 4

SOL is trading at a critical support level of $99.16, and with RSI at 28.90 giving an oversold signal, the downtrend continues. This situation makes both a strong recovery and a deep correction scenario possible, a crossroads that traders should watch carefully.

Current Market Situation

SOL/USD is trading at $99.16 with a 4.67% drop in the last 24 hours. The daily range stayed between $96.64 – $105.10 and trading volume reached $6.10 billion, indicating high volatility. The overall trend continues downward; price is trading below EMA20 ($117.60) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with resistance level at $120.51 becoming prominent.

RSI(14) at 28.90 in the oversold region, which carries short-term bounce potential but MACD histogram is negative and maintaining bearish momentum. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 7 strong levels were detected on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/1 resistance on 3D, 1 support/4 resistances on 1W. Critical support $96.0222 (score: 81/100), resistance $108.2666 (score: 67/100). These levels stand out as key points that will determine market direction.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, it first requires holding above the $96.0222 support and then breaking the $108.2666 resistance. Confirmation signals should be sought such as RSI exiting the oversold region and turning toward 50, MACD histogram crossing the zero line upward, and a clear increase in volume. If price tests and breaks EMA20 ($117.60) upward, the Supertrend turning to a bullish signal could strengthen momentum. Clearing the first two of the 4 resistances seen on the 1W chart (around $108 and $120) could trigger a broader rally. This scenario becomes realistic if supported by improving overall market sentiment (e.g., positive news flow). Traders should monitor holding the $96 support on daily close as the invalidation criterion; if broken, the scenario becomes invalid.

Target Levels

First target $120.51 (Supertrend resistance), then main target $145.5500 (score:6). According to Fibonacci extension levels, around $130 at 161.8% could be an intermediate target. In this rally, the risk/reward ratio calculated from current levels may appear attractive at around 1:2.5, but always protect with stop-loss. Confirmations from MTF levels increase the probability of reaching these targets.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by breaking the $96.0222 support on daily/4-hour close. This breakout should be confirmed by a new low signal on MACD and RSI dropping below 20. If volume increases downward, momentum accelerates. Continuation below EMA20 and Supertrend reinforces the dominance of the 4 resistances on the 1W chart. BTC’s own downtrend (detailed below) can create additional pressure on altcoins. Invalidation criterion: Price breaking above $108 resistance and weekly close; if this occurs, the bearish scenario is canceled.

Protection Levels

First protection around $85 below $96.0222 as intermediate support, main target $51.2214 (score:22). Supports from MTF on 1D/3D may slow this decline, but a high-volume breakout leads to a deep correction. Risk/reward here is close to 1:3, careful management is essential for short positions.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For bullish, close above $108.2666 + RSI >40 + volume increase; for bearish, close below $96.0222 + MACD new low. In both scenarios, 4-hour and daily candle closes are critical. During high volatility, follow additional data from SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis pages. Early warning: Volume anomalies and EMA crossovers become direction-determining.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $76,743 with 2.36% drop in downtrend; altcoins like SOL are highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+). If BTC breaks $75,759 support, additional pressure increases on SOL, descent to $72,946 could pull SOL to $80s. Conversely, if BTC breaks $77,864 resistance, SOL bullish scenario strengthens. Be cautious in altcoins while BTC Dominance rises (currently bearish Supertrend); monitor BTC’s main support at $61,211 – breakout accelerates SOL bear target.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

SOL is currently in an unstable region; consolidation between $96-$108 keeps both scenarios alive. Monitoring points: 1) Daily closes at $96 and $108, 2) RSI/MACD divergences, 3) Volume profile, 4) BTC movements. Traders should plan according to their own risk tolerance, always seeking confirmation from multiple timeframes. For market education, mark these levels on charts and analyze candle formations – success lies in disciplined monitoring.