ARB Technical Analysis Feb 3

[ENGLISH: Downtrend dominates in ARB; LH/LL structure continues in lower swing lows, BOS above $0.1378 could signal bullish change.]

Market Structure Overview

ARB is currently trading in a clear downtrend, with the current price at $0.14 and a slight -0.15% decline over the last 24 hours. Market structure analysis points to a lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern instead of higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL); this indicates dominant bearish momentum. 9 strong levels were identified across daily and weekly timeframes: 1D with 1 support/1 resistance, 3D with 1S/1R, 1W with 2S/4R distribution showing resistance-heavy structure. Although RSI at 23.39 is in oversold territory, MACD shows a negative histogram and Supertrend gives a bearish signal; remaining below EMA20 ($0.17) reinforces the short-term bearish structure. This setup depends on breaking the $0.1256 swing low for trend continuation, or surpassing the $0.1378 swing high for reversal.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

A higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) structure is required for an uptrend: consecutive higher highs and higher lows must form. No such structure has been observed in ARB recently; price was rejected below $0.17 resistance and stayed under EMA20. A potential bullish signal would be breaking the $0.1378 swing high and reaching $0.17 (Supertrend resistance); this would act as CHoCH (Change of Character), breaking LH/LL and triggering HL formation. However, although RSI is oversold, there is no divergence, resulting in a weak bullish case (target $0.2119, score 30/100).

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is confirmed by LH/LL: rejection at the recent swing high of $0.1378, holding at swing low $0.1256 but with high breakout risk. This pattern supports bearish continuation; MACD is bearish and price is stuck in the $0.13-$0.14 range. A break below $0.1256 would form a new LL, targeting $0.0641 (score 22/100). On MTF, weekly has 4 resistances, creating a setup that hinders upside but facilitates support breakdowns.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) confirms trend changes: for bullish BOS, a close above the recent swing high of $0.1378 is required, breaking LH and targeting new HH ($0.17, then $0.2119). Bearish BOS is a close below the $0.1256 swing low; this confirms LL and opens the path to $0.0641. Key levels: Resistance $0.1378 (score 62/100), $0.17 (EMA20/Supertrend); Support $0.1256 (score 79/100). Without these breaks, the structure remains unchanged; for example, a false break at $0.1378 delays CHoCH.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

The recent swing high at $0.1378 is critical short-term resistance; it represents LH and must be tested for BOS. Previous swing highs point to $0.17, a multi-timeframe resistance cluster (1W/3D). If unbroken, price maintains LHs and sustains the downtrend; without volume increase, it remains weak.

Recent Swing Lows

The $0.1256 swing low is strong support (score 79/100); it preserves the LL structure and acts as the last defense before bearish targets. A break misleads dip buyers and forms new LLs. Previous lows align with 1D/3D supports; a hold could allow short-term bounce, but if it doesn’t evolve into HH/HL, it will be temporary.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $78,045 level in downtrend (+0.21% 24h but Supertrend bearish); key supports $77,400/$74,604, resistances $79,364/$82,602. ARB is a high-correlation altcoin with BTC; if BTC breaks $77,400, ARB’s $0.1256 test increases, and rising dominance weakens alts. BTC recovery above $79,364 supports ARB’s $0.1378 BOS, but caution: BTC’s bearish context pressures altcoins. Watch: BTC below $74,604 risks cascade accelerating ARB’s bearish target.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall outlook is bearish: LH/LL structure intact, consolidation at $0.14 but high risk at $0.1256. Bullish invalidation is $0.1378 BOS + $0.17 close; bearish continuation is $0.1256 breakdown. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic, swing points are fractal; MTF alignment is essential. For spot, check ARB Spot Analysis; for futures, ARB Futures Analysis. Avoid aggressive longs until structure changes; support breakdown offers short opportunities.