Bitcoin ETF Outflows Pushed BTC Below Average Cost Basis

Key Insights

• Bitcoin traded below the average Bitcoin ETF cost basis of $87,830.
• Bitcoin ETFs posted $2.8 billion in outflows across two weeks.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETF assets under management dropped from a peak of $165 billion.

Bitcoin ETF investors saw paper losses after BTC traded near $76,565 on Monday. Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn said BTC price traded below the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis. Thorn said the average Bitcoin ETF purchase sat underwater after heavy outflows.

The Bitcoin ETF drawdown mattered because it tested institutional conviction during a selloff. Crypto Rover said buyers now bought Bitcoin below U.S. ETF average purchase prices. The pressure arrived as macro uncertainty persisted and policy clarity stalled.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Put Cost Basis Under Pressure

Thorn said Bitcoin traded below the implied average cost basis near $87,830 per coin. He based that estimate on spot Bitcoin ETF holdings and asset totals. Coinglass put U.S. Bitcoin ETF assets under management near $113 billion.

BiTBO estimated that the products held about 1.28 million Bitcoin. The mix implied average entry prices near $87,830. The market move left the average Bitcoin ETF purchase underwater.

Bitcoin fell about 11% from $84,000 on Saturday, Thorn noted. It reached a nine-month low near $74,600 early Monday. Bitcoin later traded near $76,565 during the same session.

CoinGlass data showed $2.8 billion in outflows across the past fortnight. Thorn pointed to $1.49 billion leaving last week. CoinGlass data showed another $1.32 billion left the week before.

Bitcoin ETF Assets Fell Faster Than Cumulative Inflows

Thorn said institutional investors held positions despite the drawdown. Cumulative inflow fell by only 12% from its peak. Bitcoin itself fell 38% from its peak over that period.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ asset under management declined 31.5% from the October peaks. Thorn cited an October high of $165 billion for U.S. products. He compared that slide with a 40% drop in spot Bitcoin.

The divergence suggested stickier positioning than price action implied. Thorn said institutions “been hodling” during the slide. He framed that behavior as tougher hands despite negative returns.

ETF flow snapshot added cross-market context for risk appetite. It reported net inflows for XRP spot exchange-traded funds last week. It reported net outflows for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana products.

Bitcoin outflows were near $1.49 billion last week. It reported Ether outflows near $326.93 million and Solana outflows near $2.45 million. It reported XRP inflows near $52.26 million.

Bitcoin ETF Selloff Met Macro and Policy Friction

Nick Ruck, LVRG Research director, warned about bear market risk. He said Bitcoin fell near $76,000 amid macro uncertainty. He linked weakness to a stalled U.S. CLARITY Act process.

Ruck also pointed to shifting Federal Reserve leadership expectations. He said Donald Trump backed a crypto friendly pick for Fed chair. He said investors still de-risked amid geopolitical conflicts and dollar instability.

Ruck said the U.S. economy struggled between unemployment and inflation. The market kept selling as those risks compounded. Technical indicators showed long-term sell pressure patterns forming.

The selloff also shaped messaging around institutional demand durability. Crypto Rover framed the move as a discount versus U.S. ETF averages. Thorn’s cost basis estimate supported that framing with on-chain style math.

The BTC ETF flow data now mattered because it reflected marginal demand. CoinGlass weekly totals showed sustained redemptions across two weeks. Thorn said that pattern pushed average purchase prices into the red.

Traders watched whether Bitcoin price stabilized above recent lows after Monday’s dip. Thorn referenced the underwater condition rather than calling for reversals. Ruck said demand recovery would determine bear-market outcomes.

Bitcoin ETF products still held large inventories despite outflows, according to BiTBO. That inventory anchored the cost basis estimate. The next near-term signal came from weekly flow updates and spot price reaction.