ADA Technical Analysis Feb 2

ADA, with RSI at 34.70 approaching the oversold region, shows momentum weakness; while MACD’s negative histogram maintains the bearish signal, the short-term 4.81% rise is supported by volume confirmation and carries potential for a possible bounce.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

Cardano (ADA) is trading at the 0.30 dollar level as of February 2, 2026, recording a 4.81% rise in the last 24 hours and holding the daily range between 0.28-0.30 dollars. The overall trend continues as a downtrend, as the price remains below the EMA20 (0.34 dollars) and the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, with the resistance level standing out at 0.36 dollars. From a momentum perspective, the RSI 14 period is at 34.70 and quite close to the oversold threshold of 30; this indicates that selling pressure is starting to ease. Volume at 657.54 million dollars partially confirms the upward movement, but within the general downtrend, this can be evaluated as a recovery move. Although momentum oscillators’ confluence shows weak bearish bias, oversold conditions bring short-term buying opportunities to the agenda. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were detected across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, and 1 support/3 resistances confluence on 1W. This confirms that trend strength is still dominantly downward, but support levels (0.2685 score 67/100, 0.2938 score 64/100) could serve as critical buffers.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

The RSI 14 period is currently at 34.70, indicating extremely weak momentum. In the recent period, while the price made new lows (down to 0.28 dollars), a slight bullish divergence is observed in RSI: The RSI forming higher lows compared to the price’s low levels signals that selling momentum is starting to exhaust. There is no regular bearish divergence, but a hidden bullish divergence could support short-term recovery. This divergence, especially when combined with volume increase, carries potential for a bounce toward the 40-50 RSI band. Historically, in ADA, pullbacks of 10-15% have been common after RSI levels below 30; current conditions are setting the stage for a similar scenario.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 34.70 is approaching the oversold region at the 30 threshold; this level is a threshold where momentum buyers could enter. Dropping below 50 in previous days confirmed the downtrend, but there is a slight recovery in RSI with the recent 4.81% rise. If RSI tests 30, a classic oversold bounce is expected, but since the general trend is down, additional confirmation is required for a sustained reversal. In momentum confluence, RSI gives a weak signal aligned with MACD.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

The MACD indicator is in a bearish position; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is expanding in the negative region. The negative magnitude of the histogram bars shows a slight narrowing trend in recent sessions, implying that selling momentum is slowing. There is no signal line crossover, but the histogram approaching the zero line could be a precursor signal for a potential bullish crossover. The rise in the last 24 hours has created a slight positive deviation in MACD; if the histogram turns positive, it could trigger a short-term momentum shift. In ADA’s historical data, average movements of 5-8% have been observed after MACD histogram narrowings, and the current negative expansion serves as a warning for a test toward the 0.3168 resistance.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

The short-term EMA20 is at 0.34 dollars and the price below it confirms the bearish short-term trend. The EMA ribbon (9-21-50) is compressed, with a downward slope dominant; this indicates weak trend strength. The price approaching EMA20 (currently 0.04 dollars away) brings a possible test and rejection scenario to the agenda. Ribbon expansion seems difficult without volume confirmation.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

The medium-term EMA50 and EMA200 are downward sloping, with price below both; EMA200 around 0.40s as distant support. Ribbon dynamics give a bearish signal in measuring trend strength, but with oversold RSI, a rally toward EMA50 (around 0.35) is possible. Long-term trend strength is weak, aligned with MTF confluence supports.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is maintaining its downtrend with a slight 1.01% rise at the 78,520 dollar level; Supertrend bearish and main supports in the 77,489-74,604 dollar band. BTC dominance increase creates pressure on altcoins, and due to ADA’s high correlation with BTC (0.85+), BTC’s failure to break the 79,396 resistance could keep ADA below 0.3168. If BTC breaks below 74,604, ADA accelerates toward bearish targets (0.1528); otherwise, ADA could see BTC-supported recovery in spot and futures markets. If BTC resistances (83,548-86,296) are not overcome, altcoin caution mode continues.

Momentum Summary and Expectations

The momentum analysis synthesis emphasizes the bearish trend: RSI 34.70 oversold bounce potential, MACD negative histogram slowdown, and pricing below EMA could test the short-term 0.3168 resistance, with a breakout leading to bullish target 0.4307 (score 48). In the bearish scenario, breaking 0.2685 support could lead to a drop to 0.1528 (score 22). Volume at 657M partially confirms the rise, but BTC downtrend limits ADA momentum. Key watches: RSI above 40, MACD histogram zeroing, and EMA20 test. Overall outlook is cautious; volume increase at supports would be a reversal signal. Reaching bullish targets requires BTC above 79k, otherwise downtrend remains dominant. Momentum oscillators confluence highlights the possibility of strengthening after short-term weakness, but trend strength measurement maintains bearish bias.