Cowen Outlines Why Bitcoin’s Bear Phase May Not Be Over

• Bitcoin’s Q4 2025 peak aligns with prior cycles, signaling a transition into a historical bear market phase.
• Cycle duration matched past patterns, weakening the supercycle thesis despite limited altcoin participation.
• Current price action mirrors 2019’s apathy-driven decline, suggesting weakness may extend into mid-2026.

Bitcoin weakness has returned to the center of market discussion as long-term analyst Benjamin Cowen outlines why the asset’s recent decline fits a familiar historical pattern. According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s price action reflects a transition into a bear market phase rather than a temporary pullback, with structural similarities to prior cycle downturns.

Cowen’s assessment centers on Bitcoin’s tendency to peak in the fourth quarter of the post-halving or post-election year. He notes that previous cycle highs occurred in Q4 2013, Q4 2017, and Q4 2021. The current cycle, which topped in Q4 2025, aligns with that same timing, strengthening his view that the broader cycle has already concluded.

Cycle Timing Explains Bitcoin Weakness

Cowen points to the cycle’s duration as a primary factor behind Bitcoin’s weakness. He explained that the most recent cycle lasted roughly the same length as the two preceding cycles. In his view, this consistency shows that the market has followed its historical rhythm rather than extending into a so-called supercycle.

He also rejected arguments that the cycle should continue, noting that altcoins failed to rally. Cowen stated that the absence of broad altcoin strength does not invalidate Bitcoin’s cycle behavior, noting that a similar lack of rotation occurred during the 2019 market peak.

Parallels With the 2019 Market Structure

Cowen highlighted 2019 as a key comparison point because Bitcoin topped during a period of apathy rather than widespread euphoria. During that phase, price declines unfolded slowly, driven by time-based capitulation instead of panic selling. He argued that the current downturn shows comparable characteristics, including lower highs and lower lows forming over time.

He also noted that in both 2019 and the current cycle, Bitcoin peaked shortly before the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet began to expand. That overlap, he said, strengthens the comparison between the two periods.

Outlook Extends Into Mid-2026

Based on these factors, Cowen expects Bitcoin weakness to persist through at least the first half of 2026. While he acknowledged that counter-trend rallies may occur, he described them as tactical moves rather than signs of a renewed bull market.

In related commentary, Cowen has noted rising stablecoin dominance and declining interest in layer-1 assets since 2021, developments he said continue to shape investor positioning. He has also highlighted the differing roles of Bitcoin and gold during shifting liquidity conditions, linking their appeal to concerns over fiat currency debasement rather than short-term price movements.

Related: Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin’s Next Major Peak in Late 2025, Followed by 2026 Downturn