Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price prediction shows that moving averages hint it may extend its retreat.
- Prediction markets reveal bearish expectations with Kalshi forecasting a $59,000 price tag.
- Partial US government shutdown introduces more short-term uncertainty, and Macro pressures continue to hammer down on crypto sentiment.
Bitcoin price prediction has now shifted from bullish to bearish expectations. This development was largely fueled by recent market changes, which have driven sentiment deeper into extreme fear.
The latest Bitcoin price prediction suggests it may be headed towards $60,000, but could go lower. This prediction was fueled by the cryptocurrency’s crash in the last week of January, during which it dropped below the 100-day moving average (blue MA).
Bitcoin has historically extended its decline on most occasions when it falls below the 100-MA. The extended downside pushes towards the 200-day MA. In this case, the Bitcoin price prediction is based on the observation that the price will retest the 200-MA at or near the $60,000 price level.
Kalshi Bitcoin Price Prediction Aligns with Moving Averages
The bearish sentiment has also hit the prediction markets. Kalshi forecasts that the Bitcoin price could fall as low as $59,000 in 2026. Roughly 72% of bets predict that BTC will fall below $65,000, and 58% predict that it will fall below $60,000.
Polymarket predictions also leaned in favor of the bears. The possibility of Bitcoin pushing below $75,000 surged to 77% in the last 24 hours. The probability of price dropping below $70,000 also surged to 39% during the same period.
The Bitcoin price predictions reflect expectations of further downside after the recent capitulation. However, this was not just fueled by technical data. In fact, these expectations may have been tied to recent macro factors.
Bitcoin Price Faces Short-Term Uncertainty as the US Govt Enters a Partial Shutdown
There were whispers of a potential US government shutdown last week. Polymarket showed a 100% chance of a shutdown during the weekend, and it is now official.
Reports revealed that the US government has officially entered a partial shutdown. This was confirmed through a Memo from Russel Vought, the director of the US Office of Management and Budget.
The US government previously had a shutdown from October to November last year. That shutdown caused elevated market uncertainty, and the same is expected to happen with the current partial shutdown.
The partial government shutdown may further delay the CLARITY Act, whose legislative process has taken longer than anticipated. These delays and the subsequent uncertainties may induce further capitulation, hinting at Bitcoin price prediction towards $60,000.
The latest shutdown also occurred during a period of harsh macro conditions underpinned by rising geopolitical and economic tensions. This may be exacerbated by new reports indicating that China is actively seeking to dethrone the US dollar as a global reserve currency.
Recent reports revealed that China has officially announced its intent to have the RMB elected as the new global reserve currency.
This push could mark the end of dollar hegemony and, more importantly, highlight some risks ahead. China’s push underscores ongoing concerns over the current state of the US dollar as the US debt spiral accelerates. This means USD value erosion is also accelerating, hence the push for a new reserve currency.
These outcomes suggest that the market may experience heavy disruption. It may dampen investor sentiment in the short term.