OP Technical Analysis Feb 1

The dominant downtrend in OP continues; the lower highs and lower lows structure shows a clear bearish character. Unless a Break of Structure (BOS) occurs above $0.2586, the $0.2033 support could be tested, and a Change of Character (CHoCH) should be awaited for a trend change signal.

Market Structure Overview

OP’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The recent sequence of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) indicates dominant bearish momentum. With the current price trading at $0.23, the 24-hour -5.38% loss and $0.21-$0.24 range signal increased volatility but no breakdown in the overall structure. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, and the $0.30 resistance stands as a strong barrier. Trading below EMA20 ($0.29) reinforces the short-term bearish structure. Although RSI is at 27.18 in the oversold region, the MACD’s negative histogram emphasizes the potential for continued downside. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W, supporting the overall bearish bias. Market structure analysis defines higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) as an uptrend, while confirming LH/LL as a downtrend; OP is currently trapped in LH/LL.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, the formation of HH/HL structure is essential; that is, consecutive higher highs and higher lows. No such sequence has been observed in OP recently. The current $0.23 level is struggling to hold above the previous swing low at $0.2033, but even with RSI oversold (27.18), a volume-less bounce should not be expected. The potential bullish continuation target at $0.3744 (score:31/100) appears low probability. For structural change, the price needs to break the $0.2402 swing high, form a new higher high, and then confirm with a higher low. So far, these signals are weak; remaining below EMA20 delays a bullish reversal.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strongly confirmed by LH/LL: The latest swing high is $0.2402, below the previous $0.2586 (LH). Swing lows are also progressively lower, with $0.2033 as critical support. MACD is bearish, and Supertrend resistance is at $0.30. The 24h -5.38% drop reinforces this structure. Bearish breakdown target is $0.0768 (score:21/100), but $0.2033 must break first. Continuation of LH/LL indicates a healthy downtrend; reversal is difficult without a LH/LL break.

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) are key breaks that confirm the trend direction. For bullish BOS, the price must close above the latest LH at $0.2586 and form a new HH. If this level breaks, EMA20 ($0.29) could be tested, and a CHoCH (Change of Character) signal would be received – that is, a shift from bearish to bullish structure. Conversely, bearish BOS occurs with a break of the $0.2033 swing low; this forms a new LL and confirms downtrend continuation. In MTF, 1W resistances (e.g., around $0.30) are strong, making upside BOS difficult. To watch: $0.2402 short-term resistance – if not broken, LH continuation. BOS levels are key points that invalidate the structure; for example, in the bullish scenario, holding above $0.2033 is required.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $0.2402 (score:65/100, short-term resistance) and $0.2586 (previous LH, score:65/100). These levels prove the LH structure; staying below $0.2402 preserves the bearish bias. A break signals momentum shift but requires volume confirmation. Importance: These highs are targets for potential short positions and invalidation levels for longs.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing low: $0.2033 (score:73/100, strong support). This level is the base of the current LL sequence; a break triggers bearish BOS. Previous lows were higher, confirming LL structure. Support importance: If held, range-bound consolidation is possible; if broken, it opens the path to $0.0768 target. Swing lows are ideal for long entries, protected with stop-loss.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend at $77,550 with a -4.82% drop; Supertrend bearish. Main supports at $75,720, $64,655, $58,878; resistances at $78,198, $80,371, $84,348. Rising BTC dominance is pressuring altcoins, with tokens like OP showing high correlation (generally 0.8+). If BTC breaks below $75,720, OP’s test of $0.2033 accelerates; if BTC recovers above $78,198, OP has short-squeeze potential. BTC’s downtrend negatively impacts OP’s structure – altcoin caution mode active.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend dominant, BOS levels should be monitored. Holding above $0.2033 extends the range, a break below continues the trend. Upside BOS at $0.2586 signals reversal. MTF resistance dominance suggests avoiding impulsive longs. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic; follow HH/HL bullish and LH/LL bearish definitions, wait for closes for CHoCH. For OP spot, check OP Spot Analysis; for futures, OP Futures Analysis. Lack of news highlights the technical structure.