STX Technical Analysis Feb 1

STX is stuck in a narrow range at the $0.26 level, and with the RSI dropping to 33 amid a dominant downtrend, both scenarios are possible. The market is positioned close to critical resistance and support levels, and the breakout direction will be decisive.

Current Market Situation

STX is currently trading at the $0.26 level and showing a slight -0.27% decline over the last 24 hours. The price range has narrowed to between $0.23-$0.27, with trading volume at a moderate $20.96 million. The overall trend is downward; the price remains below EMA20 ($0.30) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal. RSI at 33.12 is approaching the oversold zone, while MACD’s negative histogram confirms bearish momentum. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 10 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1D has 1 support/2 resistance, 3D has 2 support/1 resistance, 1W has 2 support/3 resistance balance. Critical support at $0.2347 (strength score 76/100), resistances at $0.2621 (71/100) and $0.2861 (64/100). This structure indicates consolidation awaiting a breakout, but there is no clear direction yet.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, the $0.2621 resistance must first be broken with increased volume; this level is a short-term pivot and one of the MTF resistances. A quick momentum is expected post-breakout, with positive divergence on RSI (price making new lows while RSI makes higher lows) or MACD histogram approaching zero serving as confirmation signals. Closing above EMA20 ($0.30) could trigger a bullish flip in Supertrend. If momentum builds toward upper resistances on 3D and 1W charts (e.g., $0.2861), BTC stabilization is required for an altcoin rally. A +50% volume increase and green candle formations (bullish engulfing) would be triggers. This scenario reflects the rebound potential of the oversold RSI; invalidation level is a break below $0.2347 support.

Target Levels

First target $0.2861 (medium-term resistance), followed by $0.30-$0.33 EMA and Supertrend resistance zone. In a strong breakout, the next major target is $0.4019 (score 35/100), aligning with Fibonacci extension levels. Risk/reward ratio from current levels is approximately 1:2-3; traders could consider entry above $0.2621 with stop-loss around $0.25. With MTF confirmation, if 3 resistances break on the 1W chart, higher targets ($0.45+) become possible.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a downward break of the strong $0.2347 support (score 76/100); this level is one of the 1D and 3D supports, with high breakout risk after a low-volume test. MACD’s expanding negative histogram, RSI dropping below 30, and new red candles (bearish pinbar) provide confirmation. BTC continuing its downtrend (below 77K$) creates cascading selling pressure on altcoins. If volume spikes on the support break, panic selling accelerates. Short-term bearish EMA stack (below EMA20) and Supertrend bearish signal amplify existing risks. For invalidation of this scenario, the $0.2621 resistance must be reclaimed.

Protection Levels

First protection level post-$0.2347 break is intermediate support at $0.23, major target $0.1145 (score 21/100) – 1W support cluster. Traders can use stop-loss above $0.2621 for short positions, with partial profit-taking at targets. Risk/reward 1:2+; if 3D and 1W supports (2S) break sequentially in MTF, a deeper correction (below $0.20) is possible. Caution: Oversold RSI carries sudden rebound risk.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision point: $0.2621 resistance and $0.2347 support; both high-score levels. Volume increase + closing direction is decisive – bullish confirmation on upside breakout, bearish on downside. Monitor RSI divergence, MACD crossover, and Supertrend flip. BTC movement is critical: stability above 78K$ strengthens bulls, below 77K$ bears. Daily/4H chart candle formations and OBV (on-balance volume) divergence provide additional confirmation. Traders should manage risk using invalidation levels for each scenario (bull: $0.2347, bear: $0.2621).

Bitcoin Correlation

STX is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC is currently at $78.022 with -3.64% decline in downtrend and Supertrend bearish. BTC supports at $77.714, $75.720, $64.655 – a break of any triggers sharp STX drop (below $0.2347). Conversely, BTC resistances at $78.655, $80.626, $83.160 if broken trigger altcoin rally, supporting STX bullish scenario. Rising BTC dominance pressures alts; traders should track correlation via STX Spot Analysis and STX Futures Analysis pages.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

STX at critical juncture: Both scenarios equally likely, breakout direction will define the week. Watchlist: $0.2621/$0.2347 levels, RSI/MACD signals, volume changes, and BTC around 78K$. Traders should size positions per risk tolerance and prepare for both scenarios – this analysis is designed to teach probabilities. No news flow but general market sentiment should be monitored. Check relevant pages for spot and futures trading.