ZEC, approaching critical support zones within the daily downtrend, is signaling oversold with RSI at 34.73, indicating a possible rebound purchase, but the upward momentum remains weak with MACD negative histogram and Supertrend bearish signal. The overall market structure is bearish, and a break of the $265 support could trigger deep drop risk.
Executive Summary
ZEC is trading at $299.93 as of February 1, 2026, having experienced a 7.35% drop in the last 24 hours and moving within the $274.40-$327.94 range. Unable to hold above EMA20 ($367.18) under downtrend dominance, the price has entered the oversold zone with RSI at 34.73, offering short-term rebound potential, but MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance remains at $411.52. Critical supports are at $265.59 and $295.46, while resistance will clarify above $341.61; volume is high at $1.07B, but selling pressure dominates. Risk/reward ratio is unfavorable toward bearish targets ($50.39), but BTC correlation should be monitored.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
ZEC’s overall trend direction is clearly downtrend. The price, moving within a falling channel on daily and weekly charts, is forming lower highs with an 8.5% pullback from recent peaks ($327.94). The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and positioning $411.52 as resistance. Remaining below short-term EMA20 ($367.18) confirms bearish short-term momentum. Multi-timeframe (1D/3D/1W) analysis has identified 12 strong levels: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 2S/4R distribution on 1W, reinforcing the downtrend structure. This structure requires a close above $341.61 for upside or a break below $265 for downside.
Structural Levels
Main structural supports, based on Fibonacci retracement and volume profile, stand out at $265.59 (score 68/100, strong swing low) and $295.46 (score 61/100, recent low test). On the resistance side, $341.61 (score 67/100, 0.618 Fib) and $369.35 (score 64/100, near EMA20) are critical. Compared to the weekly bull target of $507.75 (score 26, low probability), the bearish $50.39 target (score 16) appears more realistic. Structural breaks will trigger trend changes: Higher high/higher low formation above $369, or a new down wave below $265.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 34.73 is near the oversold zone (below $30), with rebound purchase potential increasing due to the 7.35% drop in the last 24 hours – divergence can be observed on the daily chart. MACD is bearish; negative histogram is widening, selling pressure continues above the signal line, zero line crossover is distant. Stochastic in the 20s, Williams %R at -85 giving the same oversold signal. Although momentum confluence is bearish, oversold conditions could create opportunities for short-term long positions, but confirmation is needed.
Trend Indicators
EMAs in bearish hierarchy: Price below EMA20 ($367.18), EMA50, and EMA200. Death cross (EMA20
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Support zones: $295.46 (61/100, nearby support, volume accumulation), $265.59 (68/100, main support, 1W swing low). Below, $200 psychological and $50.39 long-term bear target. Resistance zones: $341.61 (67/100, first test), $369.35 (64/100, near EMA), above $411 Supertrend. Multi-TF analysis confirms 12 levels: Defense between $295-$341 on 1D, $265 critical on 1W. Price in the middle at $299, $295 break opens path to $265; above $341 signals reversal.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume at $1.07B is high, increase during drop shows bearish absorption – OBV negative divergence, CMF negative flow. Market participation seller-weighted, buyers entered at $274 low but couldn’t hold. Not above VWAP $305, institutional volume low. Volume profile forms POC (point of control) at $295, holding this level critical. High-volume breaks increase trend importance.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward: Bull target $507.75 (RR 1:2.5, score 26 low), bear $50.39 (RR 1:6, score 16). Main risks: BTC downtrend correlation, $265 break leading to deep losses (below $200), volatility explosion. Positive: Oversold RSI rebound, buying on volume drop. Positioning: Short on $341 rejection, long on $265 bounce. Stop-loss below $265 for short, above $341 for long. Overall risk high, 5-10% portfolio limit, monitor news flow. No breaking news, quiet market increases volatility.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $78,594 (-5.11%) in downtrend, price action showing high correlation with ZEC (~0.85), monitor BTC supports $77,897/$75,720. BTC break below $64,655 pushes ZEC below $265; resistance above $80,285 brings relief. BTC Supertrend bearish, dominance rising – cautious for altcoins, ZEC dependent at 0.38% of BTC. BTC $83,160 target paves way for ZEC $341 test, correlation break rare. Follow ZEC Spot Analysis and ZEC Futures Analysis.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
ZEC technical chart clearly dominated by bearish downtrend: Oversold momentum offers short-term bounce, but failure to hold structural supports ($265-$295) could open path to $50s. Strategy: Bottom fishing around $295 (stop $290), short $341 rejection (target $265). Long-term, wait for BTC recovery, keep risk limited. This comprehensive view provides the full picture with multi-indicator confluence and multi-TF – decisions are personal.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.