- Bitcoin is set to end January 2026 in the low $80,000 range.
- February historically posts positive returns, with only 4 months since 2011 showing losses.
- Mid-quarter positioning and Q1 performance influence early-year market direction.
As Bitcoin trades at $82,891 at press time, it remains down 7.5% over the past week, 5.5% for the month, and 20% year-on-year. With these prices, Bitcoin is set to close January on a bearish note. Historical patterns suggest that February returns are mixed.
January 2026 Performance Overview
The first month of the year often sets the tone for Q1. Historically, per Coinglass data, Bitcoin’s Q1 performance can be varied, with some years producing sharp rallies and others posting steep corrections. For example, Data shows 2021 Q1 saw gains of +103.17%, while 2018 Q1 recorded a -49.7% decline.
February Performance: Historical Context
Analysis of Bitcoin’s monthly returns from 2011 to 2026 shows February is historically a positive month with only four years delivering losses. Highest positive February returns occurred in 2011 (+65.2%), 2013 (+54.9%), and 2024 (+44%), while the highest declines were seen in 2014 (-33.7%) and 2025 (-17.5%).
Notably, February’s positive Bitcoin returns stand out as among the more reliable months of the year. It posts an average gain of about +13.1% and a median return of roughly +12.2%.
February also tends to reflect January’s directional bias. When January closes higher, February has often extended gains or maintained upside continuation. Even after weaker January performances, February has still managed positive closes in several instances, highlighting its independent strength as a month.
This makes February an important early-year confirmation period, during which traders gauge whether bullish conditions are firming up or whether broader risk appetite is starting to fade as the year progresses.
What Analysts Say
An analyst on X says Bitcoin may face further downside in H1 2026. He noted that key support lies at $75K, but the stronger target appears to be $65K, reinforced by the 200-week moving average near $60K. The 100-week moving average at $88K now acts as resistance, suggesting rallies may be limited.
Analyst QUANTUM also said Bitcoin currently shows only limited bullish signals, with no clear rotation from gold or silver into crypto. He mentioned the near-term target around $74K, while $49K represents a potential worst-case scenario. He, however, projected that any significant bullish momentum would likely occur in Q3 or Q4.
Contrastingly, Michael van de Poppe says Bitcoin may be nearing a turning point. Indicators like the RSI against gold and the MVRV Z-Score suggest historical bear-market conditions.
A break above $87,000 could signal a return to previous trading ranges, with $100,000 as a possible target. Bitcoin appears historically undervalued, hinting that the corrective phase may be ending.
Related: Arthur Hayes Explains Why Dollar Liquidity Decline Is Dragging Bitcoin Lower
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