Key Insights:
- David Schwartz, the CTO of Ripple, used expected value math to show why targets of $100 for XRP lack market support.
- Current XRP price trading levels indicate that very few rational investors believe in extreme near-term rallies.
- Despite the skepticism about $100, institutional interest is rising through new XRP ETFs and whale accumulation.
The XRP community is currently buzzing after a series of direct comments from David Schwartz. This week, the Ripple CTO Emeritus addressed some of the viral claims that the token might soon hit $50 or $100. While many supporters are holding onto these high targets, Schwartz used logic to push back.
The Market Logic Behind XRP Price
Schwartz explained that if a large group of rational people truly believed XRP had a 10% chance of hitting $100 soon, they would not be selling it at today’s rates. Instead, they would buy aggressively, which would quickly push the value much higher.
Therefore, the fact that the token continues to trade far below double digits indicates that very few people are actually putting their money behind a $100 prediction.
According to Schwartz, anyone claiming a massive rally is certain while the price stays low is not telling the truth.
He framed the issue as a gap between what people say on social media and how they actually behave with their capital. He encouraged investors to apply simple probability math to understand why the current market is acting the way it is.
Schwartz also asked retail investors to stop making decisions based on “hopium” rather than actual market data.
Current Market Reality and Long-Term Trends
XRP price was trading near $1.75 at press time and was showing a drop of about 8% over the past week. This price action places it in a long consolidation phase that has lasted over 400 days. Technically, the asset was under pressure, sitting roughly 25% below its 200-day moving average.
Short-term indicators suggested this period of sideways movement might continue for some time.
Despite weak price trends, some signs of institutional interest remain strong. US spot XRP ETFs recorded nearly $92 million in net inflows in January. It indicated that while the $100 target is under fire, there is still steady demand for the asset from professional investors.
Furthermore, data from Santiment shows that 42 new wallets holding at least one million tokens have appeared since the start of the year. This indicates that large holders are quietly accumulating.
Why a $100 XRP Price Target is Not Likely Soon
Schwartz was honest about his own history of being wrong about crypto prices. He recalled that he once thought XRP hitting $0.25 was unlikely and even sold his own holdings at $0.10.
However, he says that he believes a move to $100 requires a level of conviction that isn’t visible in the current order books. If the market truly saw a $100 price as a real possibility, the supply at lower levels would have been exhausted months ago.
Other industry experts have said the same thing and warned that these exaggerated predictions have done more harm than good.
Analysts are arguing that people who are truly convinced of a $100 price should be accumulating heavily right now. In other words, the lack of such aggressive buying proves that the “moon” targets are mostly just cheap talk.