 
 
Justin Bons, Founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, warns that Bitcoin will face a structural security crisis over the next 7 to 11 years, arguing that its long-term design makes it vulnerable to economic attacks.
Bons’s primary concern is that Bitcoin’s security budget is funded primarily through block subsidies that decline with each halving. As inflationary rewards shrink, Bitcoin must rely on transaction fees or sustained exponential price growth to maintain miner incentives, both of which Bons views as unrealistic over the long term.
According to this view, Bitcoin would need to double in price every 4 years for decades to maintain its current security level, or sustain persistently high transaction fees.
The founder of Cyber Capital believes that such outcomes are mathematically incompatible with global economic limits and competitive fee markets. Fee spikes are temporary, particularly when users exit the network, and costs rise. This system prevents fees from stabilizing at levels that would undermine long-term security.
Data cited in support of this view shows that miner revenue, rather than hashrate, has declined compared to previous cycles. Since security depends more on the cost of mounting an attack than on raw computational output, falling miner payouts reduce the economic deterrent to double-spending and censorship attacks.
 
Under conservative assumptions, Bons estimates that the cost of attacking Bitcoin for a single day could be in the low millions of dollars over two to three halving cycles. Moreover, the potential rewards from exploiting exchanges or decentralized protocols could reach far higher.
This imbalance creates an unsustainable equilibrium where Bitcoin must eventually choose between increasing its supply beyond the 21 million cap or tolerating declining security. Either outcome risks fracturing consensus, undermining trust, and potentially splitting the network.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s throughput is roughly seven transactions per second. Bons argues that the network cannot support mass self-custody or orderly exits during periods of stress.
Moving on, Bons asserts that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is a fundamental departure from its original design goals. In the founder’s view, Bitcoin’s long-term security model remains on a collision course with economic reality unless these structural issues are addressed.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/crypto-founder-predicts-bitcoin-collapse-in-7-11-years-heres-why/