Experts believe the Canadian economy experienced a contraction in Q4 2025 after Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth went flat in November. The country faced a great deal of trade uncertainty last year amid tariffs from the Trump Administration, largely contributing to this economic slowdown.
Recent data from Statistics Canada (StatCan) showed that the country may have ended 2025 on a weak note after data published from November showed GDP growth had stalled. Early estimates are now suggesting that the country will see a decline in real GDP growth for Q4 2025 after small but positive growth in Q3. While the services industry experienced modest growth in November, this positive data was largely offset by weakened goods-producing industries such as manufacturing.
This information comes after Canada experienced a rough financial year in light of hefty tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration. In early March of 2025, the Trump Administration placed a 25% tariff on all products of Canada, which increased to 35% in early August. These U.S. tariffs also included a 10% tariff on energy resources like oil and critical minerals from Canada, as well as 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which increased to 50% in early June. Additionally, the U.S. placed a 25% tariff on auto imports in April 2025. The Canadian manufacturing industry was hit especially hard by these tariffs, explaining the weakened growth data from this sector in November of last year.
Canada’s 2025 economic performance amid tariff uncertainty
Canada and the United States have historically maintained a strong economic partnership, with much of Canada’s economy relying on the United States for its success. After the initial tariffs were imposed by the Trump Administration on its northern ally, the Government of Canada reported a 1.6% decline in real GDP growth from Q1 to Q2 2025. Canadian exports value (goods and services) declined by 10.8% during this time frame, while Canadian imports value from the same sector declined by 3.5%.
However, the Canadian Government shocked the world when it published positive data for Q3 2025. To the surprise of many experts, this data showed that the country experienced real GDP growth of 2.6% from Q2 to Q3, proving their economic resilience despite the ongoing trade war with the U.S. Canadian exports value (goods and services) increased by 1.8% during this period as well, while imports value of the same sector experienced a further decline of 1.6%. This successful economic pivot by the Canadian Government after a rough Q2 was largely driven by a growth in exports to non-U.S. markets.
An official report of Canada’s Q4 economic performance has not been fully published, but the current data in circulation shows that despite the major turnaround in Q3, the country’s economy stalled out at the end of last year. The Bank of Canada projects that real GDP growth for 2025 will come out to be around 1.2%, a significant decline from the real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2024.
Canada’s 2026 economic outlook
The projected real GDP growth of Canada’s economy in 2026 is currently 1.1%, a slightly lower figure than the projections of the previous year. This forecast anticipates that the country will experience modest economic expansion in 2026, although this data is subject to change as the year progresses. Unless a new deal is struck, U.S. tariffs will continue to be a burden for the Canadian economy, although a continued expansion of exports to non-U.S. markets may prove beneficial.
Canada recently struck a significant trade deal with the Chinese Government, where the country plans to boost exports to China by 50% by 2030. The completed construction of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in 2024 has also allowed Canada to vastly expand their oil exports to previously untapped Pacific and Asian energy markets. This newfound economic opportunity has great potential for success in 2026, with oil being one of Canada’s most prominent exports.
This diversification away from U.S. exports is part of a significant fiscal stimulus boost Canada is set to receive in 2026, which is the largest the country has implemented in six years. Outside of export diversification, the federal government is additionally planning large scale deficit-financed capital spending, nation-building projects, and internal free-trade initiatives. Oxford Economics predicts that 2026 will be a year of both adjustment and opportunity for the Canadian economy. Beyond the trade war with the U.S., high household debt, declining population, and an overvalued housing market all pose notable risks to growth.
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