U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders face 8.5% loss: Is BTC in trouble?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders were underwater.

According to Jim Bianco, a macro investment research analyst at Bianco Research, the Average Cost Basis for all ETF buyers since 2024 was $90.2K.

After the extended dip in the past 24 hours, BTC price slipped to $82.3K at press time. Therefore, investors who have held ETFs since their launch were down by about 8.5%.

Source: Bianco Research/Bloomberg

Is BTC rebound still on the cards?

In late 2025, BTC ETF inflows dropped sharply and continued to fluctuate into the new year. This decline further weakened prospects for a strong rebound.

However, the correlation between the BTC ETF’s Average Cost Basis and price revealed an important insight. For instance, in September 2024, when the price fell below the ETF’s average purchase level, BTC consolidated around that point before staging a strong recovery.

A similar pattern emerged in early 2025 during the tariff‑driven market dump, when BTC once again bounced off the ETF average cost basis.

If the current trend mirrors Q3 2024, another rebound could be possible, with a potential bottom forming below $90K.

 This thesis is supported by Bianco Research data, which shows the combined average purchase price for Strategy and spot BTC ETFs currently sits at $84.5K.

Throughout this cycle, major drawdowns have consistently eased at this level. As a result, defending $84.5K appears crucial to maintaining the broader bullish market structure.

Source: Bianco Research

In other words, a sustained dip below $84.5K and a crack below this key support may signal a deeper drawdown, eventually invalidating the broader bullish market structure.  

Mapping BTC’s mid-term headwinds

But do other data sets support such a recovery outlook? 

According to the 30-day average of BTC demand growth, it flipped negative for the first time since mid-2025. Given the recoveries in 2024 and 2025, a similar move is only possible if ETFs return to being net buyers. 

Source: CryptoQuant

But according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the market will stabilize only after the new Fed chair pick has been confirmed and tested.

Already, U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to announce the new Fed chair pick later today has stirred the markets, underscoring a turbulent 2026, as previously projected by Lee. 

Final Thoughts 

• If BTC decisively reclaims the combined Strategy and spot BTC ETFs’ average purchase price of $84.5K.
• Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projected a deeper drawdown as markets test the new Fed chair.