DOT Technical Analysis Jan 29

Today’s short-term outlook for DOT is cautious; consolidation dominates at the 1.86$ level. Critical support at 1.8486$ and resistance at 1.8923$ should be monitored, with quick invalidation points determined.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Polkadot (DOT) is trading at 1.86$ as of January 29, 2026, recording a 0.96% decline over the last 24 hours. The intraday range remained limited between 1.83$ – 1.90$, with volume at a moderate 99.96 million$. The short-term trend is downward; price is positioned below EMA20 (1.87$), signaling bearish conditions. RSI at 45.44 is in neutral territory, no oversold conditions but momentum is weak. MACD histogram is positive but the overall line is nearing a bearish crossover. Supertrend indicator is bearish and points to 1.97$ resistance. In higher timeframes (1D/3D/1W), 14 strong levels were identified: 2 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 1S/2R on 3D, 3S/4R on 1W. This MTF context suggests downward pressure may continue short-term. Focus for the next 24-48 hours shifts to quick momentum changes and BTC correlation. News flow is calm, so technical levels take precedence. Risk is high for short-term traders; %1-2 risk rule in capital management is mandatory, stop-losses should be tight.

Intraday Critical Levels

Nearby Support Zones

Immediate support zone at 1.8486$ (score: 81/100), a strong pivot just above the intraday low of 1.83$. A break below this level could trigger a quick drop, invalidation above 1.85$ close. Second support at 1.7170$ (score: 60/100), a key base from the 1D timeframe. For scalping, monitor the 1.8486-1.8550 zone, with upward rebound potential but volume confirmation required.

Nearby Resistance Zones

Closest resistance at 1.8625$ (score: 71/100), just above current price and aligning with EMA20. Breakout requires hourly close above 1.8625$, otherwise rejection expected. Next resistance at 1.8923$ (score: 73/100), aligned with Supertrend. Consolidation likely between these levels, seek volume spikes on breakouts. Quick invalidation: close below 1.8625$ brings bearish continuation.

Momentum and Speed Analysis

Short-term momentum is mixed: MACD histogram expanding bullishly but unreliable while price remains below EMA20. RSI around 45 is neutral, potential acceleration on crossover above 50. Supertrend bearish signal tilts momentum downward. Speed analysis on 1-hour chart shows declining speed; recent range 1.83-1.90 has narrowed, volatility low. Sudden volume surge (above current 100M) could shift momentum. For intraday traders, scalping zone: 1.8486-1.8625, ideal for quick entries/exits but high false breakout risk. Risk management: Target 1:2 R/R per trade, use trailing stops.

Short-Term Scenarios

Upside Scenario

Bullish scenario trigger: Strong close above 1.8625$ and MACD hist expansion. First target 1.8923$, then 2.0307$ (score:48). Supportive if BTC breaks 89.3k$ resistance. Invalidation: Drop below 1.8486$. For swing trade, long at 1.86, stop 1.8450$. Potential 5-8% return in 24 hours, but low probability (due to bearish trend).

Downside Scenario

Bearish scenario dominant: Accelerates on 1.8486$ break. First target 1.7170$, then 1.5467$ (score:0). Trigger: Hourly red candle and RSI below 40. Cascade effect on DOT if BTC tests 88.9k$ support. Short entry at 1.86, stop 1.8650$, target 1.84. High probability, 7-10% downside in 48 hours. Short bias recommendation short-term, with tight stops.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC sideways at 89,120$, 24h -0.40%. DOT highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); BTC Supertrend bearish signals caution for altcoins. Monitor BTC supports at 88,923$, 87,423$, 86,075$ – rejection from here tests DOT 1.8486$. Resistances at 89,312$, 90,693$, 92,090$; BTC breakout pushes DOT higher. Short-term, rising BTC dominance keeps DOT under pressure. Follow links for DOT Spot Analysis and DOT Futures Analysis.

Daily Summary and Monitoring Points

– Key watch: 1.8486$ support (main trigger), 1.8625$ resistance.
– Momentum: MACD hist positive but EMA bearish in focus.
– BTC impact: Below 88.9k$ accelerates DOT downside.
– Risk: Short-term trades carry high volatility, max 1% risk/position.
– Summary: Bearish bias, short scalping opportunities if 1.8486$ not held. BTC confirmation required for upside. Today’s volume and candle closes will be decisive. Check links for detailed spot/futures.