Spot buyers look cautious as Bitcoin prezzo hovers below key moving averages, with BTC trading around 88,000 in a corrective phase inside a broader bullish cycle.
Daily timeframe (D1): main regime – bearish correction
Bias: Bearish on the daily, within a larger bullish cycle that started earlier in 2024.
EMAs (trend structure)
Price vs EMAs: Close ≈ 88,013
EMA 20 ≈ 90,142
EMA 50 ≈ 91,193
EMA 200 ≈ 98,252
Bitcoin is trading below all three key EMAs, and the shorter EMAs (20 and 50) are also below the 200-day. That is classic corrective territory after a major advance. The medium-term trend has rolled over, and now the burden of proof is on the bulls to reclaim levels rather than on bears to defend them.
What it implies: The path of least resistance on the daily is still lower or sideways-to-lower. This remains the case until BTC can at least get back above the 20-day EMA around 90k and hold there on a closing basis.
RSI 14 (momentum)
RSI 14 ≈ 41.8
Momentum is negative but not washed out. Price is below the neutral 50 line, which points to sellers having the upper hand, yet it is nowhere near the 30 zone that usually marks panic or forced liquidation.
What it implies: Selling pressure is real but controlled. There is room for further downside before dip-buyers are forced in by oversold conditions. This favors a gradual bleed or choppy base-building over an immediate V-shape recovery.
MACD (trend momentum)
MACD line ≈ -751
Signal line ≈ -286
Histogram ≈ -466 (deeply negative)
The MACD is firmly below zero and the line is under its signal, with a decently negative histogram. This is what a maturing downswing looks like. Bearish momentum remains in control, but the market is already well under the zero line, so the most aggressive phase of the rollover is likely behind us.
What it implies: Trend momentum is still on the bears side. Any bounce into the 20- or 50-day EMA should be treated as a test of resistance rather than a confirmed trend change. That is unless the MACD line starts curling back up toward the signal and the zero line.
Bollinger Bands (volatility & positioning)
Middle band (20-day basis) ≈ 91,282
Upper band ≈ 97,272
Lower band ≈ 85,291
Price ≈ 88,013, closer to the lower band
Price is trading in the lower half of the band structure, nearer the lower band but not riding it. The market is not in a full-blown volatility expansion to the downside, because there is no persistent band walk, but it is clearly priced on the defensive side of the range.
What it implies: BTC is in the discount half of its recent 20-day range, but not yet in a capitulation squeeze. That usually means bounces toward the mid-band near 91k are possible. However, unless that band is reclaimed with conviction, rallies tend to be sold into.
ATR 14 (volatility)
ATR 14 ≈ 2,191
Daily range volatility is significant relative to price but not extreme for Bitcoin at these levels.
What it implies: Swings of a couple of thousand dollars per day are normal in this regime. Position sizing and leverage need to respect the possibility of fast 2–3k intraday moves without assuming we are in a meltdown environment.
Pivot levels (short-term reference)
Daily Pivot Point (PP) ≈ 88,355
Resistance 1 (R1) ≈ 89,006
Support 1 (S1) ≈ 87,362
Price is currently just under the daily pivot, which is an important reference for short-term traders.
What it implies: As long as BTC sits below the pivot, intraday flows are biased to sell rallies. A push above 88.4–89k and a sustained hold would be the first small signal that buyers are starting to regain initiative on the day.
Fear & Greed Index
Value: 26 – Fear
The market has clearly stepped away from the euphoria phase seen earlier in the cycle. Sentiment is now more cautious and defensive.
What it implies: Positioning is no longer extremely crowded on the long side. Fear at these levels often accompanies late-stage corrections, but it does not automatically mean a bottom. Sentiment can stay fearful while price continues to grind lower.
Market context and macro structure
BTC dominance ≈ 57.3%
Total crypto market cap ≈ $3.06T
24h market cap change ≈ -1.65%
Bitcoin is still carrying the market on its back. A dominance this high, combined with risk-off behavior in total market cap, points to capital staying in BTC relative to altcoins but reducing overall exposure across the sector.
What it implies: When BTC sneezes in this regime, alts tend to catch pneumonia. If this correction extends, the damage in altcoins is likely to be worse, but BTC itself should remain comparatively more resilient than the broader crypto complex.
1-hour timeframe (H1): short-term pressure, but not a waterfall
Price ≈ 88,013
EMA 20 ≈ 88,671
EMA 50 ≈ 88,790
EMA 200 ≈ 89,492
Regime: marked as bearish
Price is under all key intraday EMAs, which are stacked bearishly and starting to bend down. This reinforces the message from the daily chart.
What it implies: The intraday trend is down, confirming the daily bearish bias. Rallies toward the 88.7–89.5k area are likely to encounter supply unless the intraday structure changes meaningfully.
RSI 14 (H1) ≈ 38.2
Momentum is weak on the hourly chart but not yet at exhaustion levels. Sellers remain in control, yet they are not fully overstretched.
What it implies: There is room for one or more pushes lower before short-covering becomes dominant. That said, traders should watch for divergences if price makes new lows while RSI stops confirming.
MACD (H1):
Line ≈ -298
Signal ≈ -176
Histogram ≈ -122
The hourly MACD is negative with a negative histogram, but the distance between the line and the signal is not widening aggressively. This suggests more of a grind than a collapse.
What it implies: The downtrend is established but currently more grinding than capitulating. Any flattening of the histogram toward zero would be an early hint of a relief bounce attempt on this timeframe.
Bollinger Bands (H1):
Mid ≈ 88,902
Upper ≈ 90,259
Lower ≈ 87,545
Price ≈ 88,013, sitting in the lower half but not pinned to the band
The market is trading defensively intraday, yet volatility is still relatively contained. There is no clear band walk yet on the downside.
What it implies: Breaks below roughly 87,500 that start riding the lower band would mark an acceleration in selling. Until that happens, the downside is controlled rather than chaotic.
ATR 14 (H1) ≈ 467
Hourly ATR around 400–500 dollars indicates that intraday swings of that size are normal noise in the current regime.
What it implies: Very tight stops near current price are at risk of being shaken out in both directions by standard volatility. Traders need to calibrate position size and stop distance accordingly.
Hourly pivots:
PP ≈ 88,049
R1 ≈ 88,124
S1 ≈ 87,937
Price is almost exactly at the hourly pivot, which highlights the market indecision at this micro level.
What it implies: The market is deciding its next intraday leg. A clear move below 87,900 with acceptance would align the hour even more strongly with the daily downtrend. Conversely, reclaiming and holding above 88,100–88,300 would signal a short-term pause or bounce.
15-minute timeframe (M15): execution context only
Price ≈ 88,013
EMA 20 ≈ 88,211
EMA 50 ≈ 88,512
EMA 200 ≈ 88,773
Regime: bearish
The very short-term structure is also bearish, but here the picture is more nuanced and mainly relevant for execution timing.
RSI 14 (M15) ≈ 41.5
Momentum is weak but stabilizing a bit compared with the hourly chart. That often happens after an initial leg lower.
What it implies: Short-term selling is slowing, which often precedes either a small bounce or a consolidation range rather than immediate further acceleration to the downside.
MACD (M15):
Line ≈ -128
Signal ≈ -127
Histogram ≈ -0.45 (almost flat)
The MACD line and signal on M15 are nearly on top of each other, and the histogram is close to zero. This signals a pause in immediate momentum.
What it implies: Very short-term momentum is neutralizing after the last drop. This is a classic setup for a local range or a mean-reversion pop back toward the 20 and 50 EMAs before the market chooses direction again.
Bollinger Bands (M15):
Mid ≈ 88,221
Upper ≈ 88,499
Lower ≈ 87,943
Price ≈ 88,013, just below the mid-band
On the execution timeframe, BTC is hovering close to the middle of its recent 15-minute range. That is neutral in the very short term and does not show clear stretch or compression.
What it implies: In the micro context, approximately 200-dollar swings are routine. Entries too close to nearby intraday levels can be hit just by noise, so precision and patience matter.
M15 pivots:
PP ≈ 88,040
R1 ≈ 88,108
S1 ≈ 87,945
Price is oscillating around the pivot, which underlines the lack of very short-term conviction for now.
What it implies: For active traders, this is a classic wait-for-the-break zone. A decisive move away from the 88k area is needed for a clean intraday directional trade with a favorable risk/reward profile.
Putting it all together: scenarios
The key point is that all three timeframes (D1, H1, M15) are technically bearish, but the shortest one is showing early signs of stabilization. That usually precedes either a short-covering bounce into resistance or a sideways consolidation before the next leg down.
Bullish scenario for Bitcoin prezzo (counter-trend rebound)
In this context, any bullish outcome is a counter-trend move on the daily chart. The dominant structure remains corrective and favors sellers until proven otherwise.
What bulls need to do:
- Defend the lower daily Bollinger Band region around 85,000–86,000. A series of higher lows above that band would show that sellers are running out of fuel.
- Push price back above the daily pivot (~88,355) and then the H1 and D1 20-EMA cluster around 90,000–90,500.
- Turn hourly momentum, with H1 RSI back above 50 and the MACD histogram contracting toward zero from the negative side.
Upside levels in play if bulls regain control:
- First target or ceiling: 91,000–91,500 (daily mid-Bollinger and 50-EMA zone), which is likely the first major supply area.
- Next extension: 95,000–97,000 if volatility expands to the upside and shorts are crowded.
What would invalidate the bullish scenario: A clean daily close below the lower Bollinger Band around 85,000 with expanding ATR and a still-negative MACD histogram. That would show the correction is not done and bulls have failed to defend the volatility boundary.
Bearish scenario (continuation of the correction)
This is currently the main scenario based on the daily regime and indicator setup. Sellers are in control as long as key moving averages and momentum signals remain aligned to the downside.
What bears need to do:
- Keep BTC pinned below the 20-day EMA (~90,142). As long as price stays under that line on a closing basis, every bounce is suspect.
- Push the hourly structure into another leg down by breaking below ~87,500 (H1 lower band and short-term supports) and holding there.
- Maintain RSI on both D1 and H1 under 50 with MACD remaining below zero and without strong bullish divergences.
Downside levels in play if selling continues:
- Immediate reaction zone: 87,300–87,400 (near daily S1 and intraday supports). A break here opens the door lower.
- Next logical support band: 85,000–86,000 (daily lower Bollinger Band and psychological area).
- If that fails with strong volume and expanding ATR, the correction can deepen toward 80,000–82,000, where many medium-term participants would likely look for stronger value.
What would invalidate the bearish scenario (at least short-term): A sustained reclaim of 90,500+ with a daily close back above the 20-day EMA, combined with a flattening or bullish cross in the daily MACD histogram. That would turn the current move from a trend correction into a potential sideways re-accumulation phase.
Positioning, risk, and uncertainty
Currently the market is in a controlled correction within a bigger bull trend, not in confirmed macro breakdown territory. Daily and hourly structures agree on the bearish bias, but lower-timeframe momentum is stabilizing, which often precedes choppy, stop-hunting conditions.
For short-term traders, this regime favors respecting the bearish daily structure rather than treating every small green candle as the bottom. It also suggests using intraday bounces into the 88.5–90.5k area to gauge whether sellers still dominate or whether buyers are finally stepping in with conviction.
For longer-term participants, the key question is whether BTC holds above the mid-80k region. As long as that zone contains the correction, this remains a high-timeframe pullback in an ongoing uptrend. A clean break and acceptance below it would shift the conversation from healthy correction toward something more structurally concerning.
Volatility, sentiment in the Fear zone, and positioning all argue for flexibility rather than conviction. The market can easily deliver sharp squeezes against both sides before choosing the next big leg, so risk management and patience remain essential.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, trading, or financial advice. Markets are volatile and unpredictable; always do your own research and manage risk according to your own circumstances.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/01/29/bitcoin-prezzo-analysis-2/