TON Technical Analysis Jan 29

TON is maintaining its horizontal consolidation around $1.54. The critical $1.5385 resistance and $1.5294 support will be decisive in the next 24-48 hours; momentum is slightly upward biased but Supertrend bearish signal increases risks.

Short-Term Market Outlook

TON is currently trading in a balanced manner at the $1.54 level. It stayed within the $1.51-$1.55 range with a slight 1.05% increase over the last 24 hours. Volume is at a moderate $41.82M, indicating the need for additional buyers for a major move. RSI at 53.25 is in neutral territory, MACD shows a mild bullish signal with a positive histogram, but Supertrend is bearish and drawing resistance at $1.60. Trading above EMA20 ($1.53) provides a short-term bullish bias, though the overall trend is sideways. In the next 24-48 hours, a break above $1.5385 could trigger upside potential, while a break below $1.5294 could trigger downside risk. In MTF context, there are 9 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: balanced 3S/3R on 1D, support-heavy on 3D, and supports dominant on 1W. This presents a breakout-focused structure in the short term. If sideways movement continues, consolidation between $1.51-$1.55 is likely, but increased volatility is expected. For short-term traders, invalidation points are clear: below $1.5385 for upside, above $1.5294 closing for downside invalidates scenarios. Risk management is critical; stop-losses should be placed just below/above levels, position sizes limited to 1-2% risk.

Intraday Critical Levels

Nearby Support Zones

Immediate support at $1.5294 (strength score 68/100), close to EMA20 and a strong base from recent lows ($1.51). A break could lead quickly to $1.51, then to $1.50 psychological level. Secondary support at $1.51 (intraday low), a quick buy-back zone for scalping. Closing below these levels (e.g., 1-hour candle) accelerates bearish momentum. Traders should look for volume increase around $1.5294 for long scalping, invalidation below $1.5280.

Nearby Resistance Zones

Closest resistance at $1.5385 (strength score 96/100), aligning with Supertrend and short-term pivot. A break opens to $1.55, then to $1.60 Supertrend resistance. Upper target $1.6620 (score 30), but low probability. For scalp shorts, seek rejection signal above $1.5385, invalidation above $1.5400. Volume decrease on resistance tests signals weakness.

Momentum and Speed Analysis

Short-term momentum is mildly bullish with MACD’s positive histogram, RSI neutral (53.25) with no overbought/oversold. Speed analysis: Intraday volatility low (%2.6 range), but could be triggered by BTC movement. Despite bearish Supertrend, bias upward above EMA20. 4-hour momentum could shift to sideways-bullish, but stays flat without volume increase. Momentum indicators are primed for breakout in 24-48 hours; RSI above 60+ upside, drop below 45- downside speed determiner. For scalpers, speed indicators (e.g., Stochastic) should seek divergence around $1.5385. Overall, momentum neutral, breakout direction will be decisive.

Short-Term Scenarios

Upside Scenario

Closing above $1.5385 (1-hour candle) leads to quick move to $1.55, then $1.60 Supertrend test. Upside target $1.6620, but requires BTC support. Trigger: Volume increase + MACD spike. Invalidation: Below $1.5294. Probability 40%, for short-term longs entry at $1.53, stop $1.5280.

Downside Scenario

Break below $1.5294 leads to rejection at $1.51, then to $1.50. Downside target $1.3572 (score 22). Trigger: Low-volume rejection + RSI divergence. Invalidation: Above $1.5385. Probability 35%, for short scalping rejection at $1.5385, stop $1.5400. Aligns with bearish Supertrend.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC sideways at $89,142 (-0.24%), Supertrend bearish. TON has high correlation with BTC; if BTC fails $89,312 resistance, TON upside remains limited. BTC supports at $88,923 / $87,423 breaks test TON $1.5294. BTC to $90,693 supports TON path to $1.60. BTC dominance high, caution in altcoins: BTC drop pushes TON below $1.51. Watch: BTC $89,312 breakout TON bullish trigger, $88,923 breakdown bearish. Details in TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis.

Daily Summary and Watch Points

– Main watch: $1.5385 resistance, $1.5294 support.
– Momentum: Mildly bullish, await volume.
– BTC impact: $89,312 and $88,923 critical.
– Risk: High short-term volatility, capital at 1% risk.
– Scenario triggers: Confirm breakouts with 1-hour closes.
A breakout-focused day expected in 24-48 hours, trade patiently.