Key Insights
- Binance Reserve Realized Price plummets to levels Bitcoin (BTC) has never tested since the spot ETFs approval
- Coinbase Premium Index suggests the recent BTC rally is weak, as the metric remains negative
- ETF investors are tested as the market continues to record outflows
Binance Bitcoin reserve cost hits record low, plunging to $62,000, for the first time after spot ETF approval. While this signals a Bitcoin (BTC) price bear market, historical patterns may not repeat exactly in the current cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price: The Binance Reserve Outlook
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci recently pointed out changes in the Binance Reserve Realized Price metric. The metric tracks the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin (BTC) held in reserves on the Binance exchange.
The analyst noted that the metric is currently at $62,000, a level Bitcoin (BTC) price has never tested since the approval of spot ETFs.
Before the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) approvals in January 2024, this Binance-specific realized price hovered around $42,000.
However, the introduction of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF brought massive institutional inflows and changed the market structure.
As a result, the average acquisition cost for Binance reserves rose to around $62,000. The price of Bitcoin has mostly traded well above this new level during the bull phase.
Now, BTC price is back to the $62,000 zone for the first time post-ETF approval. Technically, Bitcoin price is currently in a bear cycle, but the dynamics are different due to broader adoption and holder behavior.
In past cycles, dropping below the exchange reserve realized price often marked deeper bear markets. But with the post-ETF era, the bottom might form at a higher level than before.
Additionally, $62,000 could act as strong support because it represents a newer, higher cost basis for many participants.
Coinbase Premium Index Showcase
However, another key metric, the Coinbase Premium Index, suggests more downward pressure awaits Bitcoin (BTC) price.
According to CoinGlass, the Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative, despite the price recovering.
The premium flips positive when BTC price trades higher on Coinbase than on global exchanges. This signals stronger demand from U.S. investors.
A positive premium is generally bullish as it shows real buying interest pushing prices up in the U.S. market.
In contrast, when Bitcoin trades lower on Coinbase, the premium turns negative. It indicates weaker U.S. demand and selling pressure from investors.
However, while the premium is currently negative, the BTC price is in a recovery mode. This divergence suggests the rally is not backed by organic buying in the key U.S. spot market.
According to CoinGlass, the rally is driven more by futures/perpetual contracts and short sellers closing their positions.
For a sustainable rally, the premium needs to turn less negative or go positive. This would show U.S. spot buyers stepping in to confirm the move. Without it, the upside is fragile and could stall or reverse.
What’s Next for Bitcoin (BTC) Price?
In its latest update, CryptoQuant also shared insight into key psychological and investor behavior levels in the Bitcoin market.
CryptoQuant analyst Monero focused on BTC ETF investors. The analyst noted that BTC price currently trades around $87,000.
This price coincides almost perfectly with the realized price of Bitcoin ETF holders at $86,600. Put simply, this is the average price at which ETF investors entered the market.
With Bitcoin (BTC) price sitting on the ETF realized price, the marginal ETF holder is no longer a seller, locking in gains. Rather, they have become investors deciding whether to tolerate drawdowns or exit at breakeven.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced persistent outflows since peaking at $72.6 billion in cumulative flows on October 10th, 2025. Since then, these products have seen approximately $6.1 billion in net outflows.
However, if the BTC ETF realized price bounces from $86,600, it could strengthen investors’ resolve and turn flows more positive again.
On the flip side, sustained trading below it could trigger more outflows from the ETFs.