Solana’s validator exits deepen: Will SOL see another 2024-style bear cycle?

The significance of holding key support isn’t just about keeping FOMO alive. However, with recent volatility shaking the market, major top caps have fallen below key levels, leaving some big HODLers underwater.

Moreover, analysts aren’t expecting an altcoin rally anytime soon. The Altcoin Season Index backs this up, down about 20 points from its 57 peak in mid-January. In short, capital rotation into altcoins remains muted.

That naturally puts Solana’s [SOL] support zones under pressure. In this setup, FOMO is now key to preventing a deeper drop. And for Solana, the stakes are even higher, as its validator count is slipping to multi-year lows.

Source: TheBlock

According to TheBlock, Solana’s daily validators have fallen to 789, down nearly 43% since 2025 and the lowest level since late December 2024, when the count hit 675, right in the middle of SOL’s previous bear cycle. 

Back then, SOL fell 30% in a single month from its $260 peak as validators plunged 51%. In this context, the current drop in validators is a strong signal to watch, showing that the pressure goes beyond just technicals.

Instead, when validator exits line up with price drops, it puts extra strain on the revenue that keeps the Solana network running. That naturally raises the question: Is SOL heading into another fundamentals-driven bear cycle?

Solana under pressure from operational strain

As a Layer-1, losing support hits deeper than just price. 

Solana, one of the faster blockchains, has posted five consecutive lower lows since its mid-September $250 top, putting validator revenue under pressure compared to the cost of running the network.

One metric that clearly shows this is Solana’s network fees. During the Q4 2024 bear cycle, fees dropped about 70% to $3.95 million, lining up with a  51% drop in validator count as operating costs started to outweigh revenue.

Source: TheBlock

This time around, fees aren’t breaking down the same way. 

Instead, total fees are already up roughly 150% to $1.23 million in the 2026 cycle so far. That said, monthly transactions are sliding, down from over 2 billion in December to about 1.58 billion so far in January.

What does this divergence signal? Solana’s fee growth is driven more by higher costs than by a broad pickup in usage, which still keeps pressure on validator economics, as it does not provide a “stable” revenue base.

From a fundamentals standpoint, this is not an ideal setup. 

Macro volatility has cooled FOMO, Solana’s technicals are already weak, and without a usage-led recovery, a deeper wave of validator exits could hit the network, repeating patterns we saw during the 2024 bear cycle.

Final Thoughts

• Solana’s daily validators have dropped to multi-year lows.
• Network fees are up 150%. However, declining transaction volume shows fee growth is cost-driven rather than usage-driven, keeping pressure on validator economics.