TLDR
- ASML reports Q4 earnings Wednesday with Bernstein expecting EUR 9.7 billion revenue versus EUR 9.5 billion consensus estimate
- Record China imports of EUR 3.27 billion in Q4 as customers order deep ultraviolet equipment for expansion
- Analyst anticipates Q4 bookings above EUR 8 billion driven by logic and DRAM producer spending increases
- Major chipmakers raising 2026 budgets: TSMC up 37%, Samsung up 24%, with 25% going to equipment makers
- Stock up 25% this month and doubled since April as only supplier of EUV tools for advanced chips
ASML faces a crucial test Wednesday when it reports fourth quarter earnings. Bernstein SocGen Group maintains its Outperform rating with a $1,642 price target. That represents 16.6% upside from the current $1,407.63 price.
ASML Holding N.V., ASML
The stock has been on a tear recently. Shares doubled since April and gained 25% this month alone.
Bernstein predicts ASML will surpass Wall Street expectations. The firm points to import data suggesting EUR 9.7 billion in revenue. Consensus estimates sit at EUR 9.5 billion.
China emerged as a powerhouse customer in the quarter. Imports from China hit EUR 3.27 billion in Q4. This sets a new record for Chinese purchases.
Chinese companies are loading up on equipment ahead of potential restrictions. They’re ordering deep ultraviolet technology to support leading-edge chip production.
Last Booking Report Commands Attention
Wednesday’s report marks the final time ASML will disclose booking numbers. This makes the Q4 figures particularly important for investors.
Bernstein forecasts a robust booking quarter. Both advanced logic makers and DRAM producers increased their 2026 spending plans during Q4 2025.
The Street now expects bookings of at least EUR 8 billion. Bernstein sees potential for even higher numbers.
ASML holds a monopoly position in critical technology. The company is the sole manufacturer of EUV tools required for cutting-edge chips. Industry expert John West calls ASML “the only game in town” for this equipment.
Chipmaker Budgets Fuel Growth Path
A wave of spending increases is coming from major semiconductor manufacturers. TSMC will boost capital expenditure 37% to $56 billion in 2026. Samsung Electronics plans a 24% increase to $40 billion.
SK Hynix targets a 25% jump to $22 billion. Micron Technology aims for a 45% rise to $20 billion.
Industry analysts estimate 25% of chipmaker spending flows to equipment suppliers. ASML captures the lion’s share due to its unique market position. This percentage could expand as AI chips demand more sophisticated manufacturing processes.
The company supplies tools to every major chipmaker. Its customer list includes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Intel Corporation. Strong demand for Nvidia chips also benefits ASML.
Tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, and Qualcomm Incorporated drive additional demand. These companies need advanced processors for AI applications.
Mizuho analyst Kevin Wang forecasts “China business upside” for 2026. Competitors exist for older technology, but experts expect ASML to retain dominance. TechInsights analyst Dan Hutcheson notes switching suppliers would be too risky for manufacturers betting billions on current systems.
ASML delivered 22.77% revenue growth over the past twelve months. Wall Street analysts assign a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $1,488.64 implies 5.33% upside potential.
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Source: https://blockonomi.com/asml-stock-why-this-wednesdays-earnings-could-deliver-big-surprises/