TRON retests KEY demand zone – Can TRX rally back above $0.50?

TRON [TRX] continues to establish itself as the leading stablecoin settlement network. Justin Sun’s strategic investment in River’s[RIVER] chain abstraction stablecoin infrastructure strengthens TRON’s claim.

The partnership will allow cross-ecosystem assets and liquidity to enter TRON, and give users native high-yield opportunities directly. Nansen’s report on the TRON ecosystem growth in Q4 2025 was illuminating.

It concluded that the network was one of the most active blockchains globally. It was able to handle 8-12 million transactions daily. Combined with low transaction costs and high throughput, it remained the preferred platform for high-frequency applications such as stablecoin transfer and DeFi protocols.

Entering 2026, the blockchain positioned itself to continue serving as the primary settlement layer in the crypto ecosystem.

TRX nears key demand zones

Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView

On the higher timeframes, TRX is still on an uptrend. After rallying from $0.21 to $0.37 by August 2025, the altcoin had a multi-month retracement. This pullback reached the swing move’s 61.8% retracement level at $0.2718.

This level was tested twice in November and December, before buyers stepped in. The subsequent rally back above $0.29 indicated a bullish structure was in place on the daily timeframe.

At the time of writing, TRX was retesting a former supply zone, now a demand zone. It is likely to see a bullish reaction.

Source: Glassnode

The MVRV pricing bands showed that TRX was neither overvalued nor undervalued. The rally in 2025 did not reach overvalued MVRV pricing bands. These bands are constructed to help understand zones of extreme unrealized profit and loss.

According to these bands, TRX might have the strength to push toward $0.50 or higher.

Source: Glassnode

The cost basis distribution heatmap indicated that TRX trading was above a key demand zone. Since June 2025, the $0.26–$0.27 range has maintained a significant supply density, indicating it serves as the cost basis for a large portion of holdings.

Any further price dips would likely halt at this long-term technical support level. TRON’s upside would depend on Bitcoin [BTC] and the wider market witnessing a sentiment shift and increased capital inflows.

Final Thoughts

• In 2026, TRON positioned itself as the crypto ecosystem’s preferred stablecoin settlement layer.
• The cost basis distribution heatmap highlighted the importance of $0.26 as a demand zone.