Chainlink Price Today: Technical Analysis and Scenario

In the current market context, the price of Chainlink (LINK/USDT) is moving around $11.83, with a short-term rebound that, however, fits into a still weak structure on the daily chart.

General Context: Chainlink in Technical Recovery Within a Bearish Trend

Looking at the daily chart, the Chainlink price is below all major moving averages and near the lower Bollinger band. This indicates that the dominant force is still that of the sellers, but we are not in full panic: the market is slowing its descent and assessing whether the current level could become an area of defensive accumulation or just a pause before a new plunge.

• Main Trend (D1): bearish, with price below EMA 20, 50, and 200.
• Intermediate trend (H1): neutral, with the price attempting to stabilize around $11.8.
• Operational context (15m): slight short-term bullish setup, rebound underway but without any key breakouts yet.

In other words, those looking at the Chainlink price chart today see an attempt at a base, but still within a phase where the risk of new lows is not at all excluded.

Daily (D1): the main trend remains bearish

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

– Price: $11.83
– EMA 20: $12.69
– EMA 50: $13.17
– EMA 200: $15.42

The three moving averages are all above the price and well spaced, with a typical order of a consolidated bearish phase (20 below the 50, 50 below the 200). The market is thus handling the Chainlink value with a clear medium-term negative setup.

What it implies: every rebound towards $12.5–13 risks being seen by traders as a selling opportunity until the price stabilizes at least around the 20 EMA zone. The underlying idea is that, for now, buyers are merely attempting to halt the decline, not to reverse the trend.

Daily RSI

– RSI 14: 37.1

The RSI is below 40 but not in extreme oversold territory. This indicates that the bearish pressure has been strong, but it is losing some intensity. However, there is still no clear signal of a complete exhaustion of sellers.

What it implies: the market perceives the LINK price today as weak, but not in a total sell-off. This leaves room for either a further slip or a more structured rebound if buyers enter en masse at these levels.

Daily MACD

– MACD line: -0.33
– Signal: -0.14
– Histogram: -0.19

The MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram still below zero. We are not in a vertical collapse, but the momentum remains in favor of the bears. The moderate widening of the negative histogram indicates that the current recovery has not yet truly changed the tune on the daily chart.

What it implies: the Chainlink price today is attempting to rebound, but those observing the daily chart see a market still under the control of sellers. A true reversal signal would require a decisive approach of the MACD line towards zero, which is not yet visible.

Daily Bollinger Bands

– Middle band: $12.97
– Upper band: $14.45
– Lower band: $11.49
– Close: $11.83

The Chainlink price is trading at the lower end of the channel, just above the lower band. This suggests that the correction phase is advanced, but without a violent breakdown below $11.5.

What it implies: we are in a bearish pressure zone, but also in an area where technical rebounds often develop. If the price holds at $11.5–$11.6, it is plausible to see a rise towards the central average ($13). A clear break below the lower band would instead change the scenario into a more aggressive sell-off.

Daily ATR (Volatility)

– ATR 14: $0.62

The average daily volatility is around $0.6. We are neither in an explosive regime nor in a completely dormant market: the volatility is manageable but not negligible.

What it implies: for those considering real-time entries on Chainlink, a typical daily swing can easily move the price by about 5% at these levels. Risk management must take this into account: stops that are too tight are easily wiped out.

Daily Pivot Point

– Main Pivot (PP): $11.77
– Resistance R1: $12.02
– Support S1: $11.57

The price is currently slightly above the pivot ($11.83 vs $11.77), indicating a slight intraday advantage for buyers, but within an overall bearish context.

What it implies: as long as LINK remains above $11.77, the market may attempt extensions towards $12–$12.1. A drop below $11.57 would immediately highlight the risk of new lows and cast doubt on any recovery attempts.

H1: stabilization phase, with cautious rebound

Hourly Averages

– Price: $11.83
– EMA 20: $11.80
– EMA 50: $11.93
– EMA 200: $12.47

On the hourly chart, the price is just above the 20 EMA but still below the 50 EMA and, most importantly, well away from the 200 EMA.

What it implies: in the very short term, buyers are attempting to build a support base around $11.7–$11.8, but unless they reclaim at least $11.9–$12.0, the scenario remains closer to a pause in the decline rather than a true reversal.

Hourly RSI

– RSI 14 H1: 50.0

The hourly RSI is practically balanced, indicating that, at least on this timeframe, there is no longer a clear dominance of either buyers or sellers.

What it implies: the short term remains neutral: there is room for either an extension of the rebound or a new test of the lows, depending on how the support areas are defended throughout the day.

Hourly MACD

– MACD line: -0.04
– Signal: -0.08
– Histogram: +0.04

The hourly MACD is slowly turning upwards, with the histogram slightly positive again.

What it implies: in the very short term, there is an attempt at recovery, consistent with the rebound from the lows. It is not a strong trend signal, but it indicates that the selling pressure is easing compared to previous hours.

Bollinger Bands H1

– Middle band: $11.72
– Upper band: $12.05
– Lower band: $11.39
– Price: $11.83

The price is in the upper half of the hourly channel, but still far from the upper limit.

What it implies: there is technical room for an extension towards $12 without the market immediately entering an overbought zone. However, a failure to approach the $11.95–12.05 area in the coming hours would indicate weakness in the rebound.

Hourly ATR and Intraday Pivot

– ATR 14 H1: $0.12
– Pivot H1: $11.84
– Resistance R1: $11.87
– Support S1: $11.81

The hourly ATR indicates average movements around $0.12 per candle. The price is stuck at the pivot, between S1 and R1.

What it implies: the market is narrowing the range in the short term. A breakout above $11.87 with volume could push the price towards the $11.95–12.0 area, while a drop below $11.81 would quickly bring recent lows back into focus.

15 minutes: micro-rebound structure, but still fragile

15m Averages

– Price: $11.83
– EMA 20: $11.82
– EMA 50: $11.77
– EMA 200: $11.93

On the 15m, the price moves above the 20 and 50 EMA, but remains below the 200.

What it implies: the operational context shows a confirmed very short-term rebound, but still framed within an underlying bearish structure. For those engaged in scalping, the 11.75–11.80$ range is the first area to monitor as dynamic support.

RSI 15m

– RSI 14 15m: 54.3

The 15-minute RSI is slightly above the equilibrium level, indicating a slight predominance of buyers, but without excesses.

What it implies: in the short term, longs have a slight advantage, but there is still no sign of euphoria or overheating in the movement.

MACD 15m

– MACD line: 0.04
– Signal: 0.04
– Histogram: 0

MACD and signal almost overlapping, flat histogram.

What it implies: the market is deciding the next move on this timeframe: we are in a pause phase after the rebound, waiting for one of the two sides (buyers or sellers) to push more decisively.

15m Bollinger Bands and Pivot

– Middle band: $11.82
– Upper band: $11.91
– Lower band: $11.73
– Pivot 15m: $11.84 (same H1 cluster)
– R1: $11.87
– S1: $11.81

The price is moving close to the median band and the pivot, within a relatively narrow channel.

What it implies: for the real-time Chainlink price, a breakout of the upper band around $11.9 accompanied by volume would be the first credible signal of intraday strength. Conversely, a break below $11.73 would complicate the rebound scenario and reopen the path towards $11.6.

Bullish Scenario for Chainlink: What Buyers Need

To discuss a plausible bull scenario for Chainlink’s price today, a sequence of confirmations across multiple timeframes is needed, not a single spike.

Triggers and Potential Targets

• Maintain the support at $11.6–$11.7 on the daily chart, ideally with closes above the pivot $11.77.
• Break and hold of $12.0–$12.1, which coincides with the first intraday resistance band (R1 H1 zone plus approach to EMA 50 H1).
• Extension towards $12.5–$12.7, where the daily EMA 20 ($12.69) is located. Here, a strong reaction from sellers can be expected.
• In the event of a decisive break above $13 (daily EMA 50 area), the market would begin to question the medium-term bearish narrative.

Levels that strengthen the bull scenario:

• Consistent hourly closes above $11.95–12.0.
• Daily RSI climbing above 45–50, indicating a return of relative strength.
• MACD H1 consolidating in the positive area, showing momentum in favor of buyers.

Invalidation of the bullish scenario:
A daily close below $11.50 (lower Bollinger band area) would significantly weaken the idea of a constructive rebound and shift the scenario towards a bearish continuation, with possible extensions towards previous lows (around $11 and, in case of a worsening crypto market, even lower).

Bearish Scenario on Chainlink: Continuation of the Downward Trend

The bearish scenario currently remains the primary one on the daily chart, as long as LINK stays below the key moving averages.

How It Might Develop

• The price fails to consolidate above the $11.77 pivot and is repeatedly rejected between $11.9 and $12.0.
• Break of $11.57 (S1 daily) with an increase in selling volumes.
• Acceleration towards $11.0–$11.1, which would become the next price cluster to monitor for potential reactions.
• In the event of a further deterioration in the overall crypto sentiment, already influenced by a Fear & Greed index at 20 – Extreme Fear, possible extensions even below $11, with increasing volatility.

Elements that reinforce the bear scenario:

• Daily RSI that remains below 40 or slides towards 30 without significant rebounds.
• Daily MACD further expands the negative area, indicating a return of momentum in favor of the sellers.
• Price continues to operate below the daily 20 EMA without ever testing it credibly.

Invalidation of the bearish scenario:
A convincing daily close above $13, accompanied by volume, would be the first true signal that the market is seeking not just a rebound but a trend revision. In that case, the narrative would shift from “selling the rallies” to “buying the dips” on higher timeframes.

How to Interpret the Current Context of Chainlink’s Price

The overall picture is that of an underlying bearish trend experiencing a stabilization phase. The daily remains heavy, while H1 and 15m show a rebound in progress, but still yet to be confirmed.

For those observing the Chainlink price from an operational perspective:

• The main risk is being misled by intraday micro-bounces that do not alter the daily picture: the classic “dead cat bounce”.
• Aggressive long entries here are betting on the support of the $11.5–$11.7 area, but must accept the real possibility of being stopped by a further bearish leg.
• Those considering the medium term still tend to favor selling on rebounds towards $12.5–13, as long as the price remains below the main averages.

In a context of Extreme Fear in the crypto market, it’s easy to see false signals: sudden rebounds, short-term breakouts that don’t find confirmation on the daily, or volatility spikes that hit stops both above and below key levels.

Those who follow the Chainlink price in euros or other currencies should keep in mind that the technical structure described in dollars remains the primary reference: changing the currency alters the scale, but the significance of the technical levels on the chart remains essentially the same.

In operational summary, the market for LINK is still oriented towards a medium-term bearish trend, with a rebound under construction in the short term. Until we see closures above $12.5–$13 with improving indicators, the current phase should be interpreted more as managing the decline rather than a true restart.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an invitation to invest. Trading in cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Everyone should carefully assess their financial goals and risk tolerance before engaging in the markets.