TLDR:
- Bitcoin investors have realized $6.1 billion in losses since December, the first negative period in 15 months.
- Net realized profits dropped to 2.5M BTC, matching March 2022 levels when the bear market was underway.
- Two-thirds of Bitcoin supply remains profitable while one-third sits underwater at current price levels.
- MVRV ratio cooled to 1.5x, indicating early-bear conditions rather than deep bear market capitulation phase.
Bitcoin holders are recording net losses for the first time in over a year, according to recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant.
The shift marks a notable change in market dynamics as investors have realized $6.1 billion in losses since December.
This pattern mirrors the 2021-2022 transition that preceded the last major downturn, raising questions about whether the market has entered a new phase.
Realized Losses Mount as Profit Structure Weakens
CryptoQuant data reveals that Bitcoin investors have realized losses totaling 69,000 BTC since December, valued at approximately $6.1 billion.
The metric flipped negative for the first time since October 2023, signaling a fundamental shift in market sentiment. Coin Bureau noted this development closely resembles the 2021-2022 bull-to-bear transition period.
Realized profits reached their peak in January 2024 before forming lower highs through December. The trend continued to fade throughout 2025 before turning negative.
THE 2022 BEAR MARKET SIGNAL JUST RETURNED!
CryptoQuant data shows BTC investors are losing money for the first time since Oct 2023.
1⃣ Since December, holders have realized 69K $BTC in losses, worth $6.1B.
2⃣ Realized profits peaked in Jan 2024→ lower highs in Dec→ faded… pic.twitter.com/xhN6tJdHbm
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) January 25, 2026
Net realized profits have dropped to 2.5 million BTC, representing the lowest level recorded since March 2024. That figure aligns with March 2022 readings when the previous bear market was already underway.
The deterioration in profit-taking activity suggests holders are either unable or unwilling to sell at gains. Trading volume during losing periods indicates capitulation may be building among certain cohorts. However, the scale remains modest compared to historical bear market extremes.
Current price action around $88,000 still maintains a significant premium over the realized price of $56,000. This gap indicates the average holder remains in profit despite recent losses.
The compression of profitability represents a shift in market structure rather than complete destruction of gains.
On-Chain Metrics Point to Early Bear Market Conditions
Novaque Research characterizes the current environment as an early-bear or digestion regime based on multiple on-chain indicators.
Approximately two-thirds of Bitcoin’s supply remains profitable while one-third now sits underwater. Earlier in the year, nearly all coins were in profit, but a meaningful minority now faces losses.
The MVRV ratio has cooled to roughly 1.5x, well below the 3-4x levels associated with market tops. This reading sits above the sub-1x levels that historically marked deep value during previous bear markets.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator has migrated from euphoria into an optimism-anxiety zone where conviction appears weaker.
Net Realized Profit/Loss has shifted from consistent profits to choppy, modest losses. The metric now prints negative readings frequently enough to warrant attention. However, sustained outsized loss spikes typical of broad capitulation have not yet materialized.
Professional allocators are adjusting strategies in response to these conditions. Smaller net-long positions, greater use of relative-value approaches, and increased patience characterize the current positioning.
Market participants await either renewed momentum or clearer capitulation signals before committing additional capital to directional bets.
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