Key Insights:
- Bitcoin holds $89.5K amid consolidation, with support at $87K and resistance at $94K.
- Hayes views Fed yen assistance as a liquidity enhancer, which could jumpstart Bitcoin.
- Profit-taking on-chain is an indicator of the bull trend, but it increases volatility in the short term.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains strong around the $89,500 mark as of January 24, 2026, despite some choppy price movements. The overall cryptocurrency market mood falls within a neutral-to-fear range, with investors being cautious in the short run.
Nonetheless, according to Arthur Hayes, there is something to be optimistic about. Hayes has identified possible actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the currency policies of Japan as a major indicator of price fluctuations of Bitcoin in 2026. In his opinion, this dynamic may contribute to a positive rally of the cryptocurrency.
Arthur Hayes Points to Fed-Yen Policy as a Key Driver for Bitcoin
Hayes has always been bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. His predictions remain grounded in macroeconomic policy. In his recent study, he pointed out that the current increase in the Fed balance sheet and operations in foreign exchange markets, especially by Japan, may signal an increase in liquidity.
This greater liquidity has the potential to force further investment into Bitcoin. That’s particularly due to the continued devaluation of fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar and the Yen. Hayes uses historical patterns in which government intervention, such as yen-buying, has led to greater interest in scarce assets, particularly Bitcoin.
His optimistic attitude can be traced back to the assumption that the debasement of the fiat currency will make more investors consider the alternative store of value. Since Bitcoin has a limited supply, he asserts that it will become increasingly appealing to people who want to hedge their funds against inflationary forces.
Short-Term Profit-Taking and Bitcoin’s Consolidation Around $89,000
As Bitcoin consolidates near $89,500, there is significant profit-taking from holders. According to CryptoQuant data, a larger number of Bitcoin holders are making higher profits than losses. That’s a typical characteristic of bullish market phases.
Such a profit-taking action has caused steep changes in price. It created volatility despite the general upward trend.
The market is experiencing choppy movements as investors seek to lock in gains. The pressure to sell has limited Bitcoin’s value to about $94,000, with support at about $87,000. This current price action suggests Bitcoin is in a late-cycle phase, where prices often pull back before resuming their upward trajectory.
At the time of writing, BTC price traded at $89,454, as dip-buyers are actively countering sellers, preventing further declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at a neutral point of 43.57.
In the meantime, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows an upward trend. It is an indicator of a growing volume and the establishment of a robust foundation. If Bitcoin crosses $90,000, the bulls might target the next level at $95,000.
Potential Supercycle and the Road to $3.4 Million
Hayes has made bold predictions for Bitcoin price in the long term. He forecasted that it could reach $3.4 million by 2028. This forecast is linked to the bigger picture of growing global liquidity and fiat currency devaluation.
He observes that governments are moving towards quantitative easing, as opposed to austerity measures. This, in his opinion, will cause an increase in the supply of money. Consequently, Bitcoin has a limited ecosystem. That makes it a more appealing investment to hedge against inflation.
Questions that will be important over the next few weeks include whether the buying heat can sustain the selling pressure and move the price up to the $100,000 target.
Hayes has himself set up the Maelstrom fund, with an extreme risk portfolio in 2026. It holds a heavy concentration in Bitcoin and other decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens.