Bitcoin mirrors 2021 setup: Is a BTC price pullback ahead?

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent price action highlights a structural imbalance. The asset trades range-bound near recent highs, yet follow-through buying remains weak.

Volatility persists as liquidity tightens and risk appetite stays selective. Consequently, capital rotates defensively rather than aggressively into Bitcoin.

Against this backdrop, negative on-chain demand becomes more significant.

Bitcoin’s 30-day Apparent Demand has shifted clearly into negative territory. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the deficit deepens to roughly 60,000 to 80,000 BTC, confirming a minor imbalance.

This change reflects distribution by miners and long-term holders, while new buyers fail to absorb supply. Macro conditions contribute as well.

Source: CryptoQuant

Tighter liquidity and elevated rates reduce risk appetite and slow inflows. Importantly, the decline is not driven by staking or intentional withholding.

Instead, coins actively re-enter circulation. As a result, price comes under strain, consolidating and retracing rather than expanding.

During the 2021–2022 cycle transition, similarly sustained negative demand preceded prolonged downside and capped rallies despite temporary price resilience.

The current setup echoes that phase, where stability at the surface masked a weakening market structure underneath.

Unless demand recovers meaningfully, this pattern increases the risk that recent price strength reflects a late-cycle or bear-market rally rather than renewed accumulation.

The situation could ease if spot ETF inflows stabilize or liquidity loosens, likely offering relief for several weeks rather than a lasting reversal.

Bitcoin ETF outflows reinforce weakening demand 

Bitcoin spot ETF flows reveal a growing mismatch between capital movement and underlying demand.

At press time, the data indicated the net outflows were more than $1.3 billion per week, although the total ETF assets stood at a high of $115.9 billion, and the price was hovering near $89,500.

Such deviation coincides with the new turn in apparent demand toward a -67,000 BTC deficit, which confirms weak spot absorption.

Source: SoSoValue

ETFs initially supported rallies by absorbing excess Bitcoin supply. However, more recently, the appearance of persistent red bars signals a shift.

Instead of accumulation, ETF activity now reflects distribution, indicating a change in market behavior and investor intent. Historically, similar ETF outflow phases in late 2021 preceded broader market weakness.

The current flows indicate tentative mood, risk-taking, and risk aversion driven by macro-considerations, enhancing pressure on the downside and constraining the ability to follow through with the upside.

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin’s price remains resilient, but underlying demand has weakened materially, with apparent demand falling into a -60,000 to -80,000 BTC deficit.
• At the same time, persistent spot ETF outflows exceeding $1.3 billion per week are amplifying this demand shortfall, signaling increasing downside risk.