Compound (COMP), as one of the pioneering protocols of the DeFi sector, is approaching a critical support test at the $24.13 level. In a market dominated by bearish momentum with a daily %2.82 decline, the RSI dropping to 34.85 gives oversold signals, but the MACD’s negative histogram and trading below EMA20 confirm short-term weakness.
Market Overview and Current Position
COMP traded in a narrow band between $23.75 – $24.93 over the last 24 hours and continues its downtrend at the $24.13 price. While volume remains low at the $9.99 million level, this indicates that buyers have not yet entered. The pressure observed across DeFi tokens in general has caused COMP to get stuck below EMA20 ($25.64). The market is moving in sync with Bitcoin’s slight decline, and the correlation in altcoins is limiting COMP’s recovery attempts.
In the daily timeframe, the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, while $28.01 resistance forms a strong upper ceiling. From a weekly perspective, COMP has eroded most of the gains remaining from its rally at the end of 2025. According to MTF confluence analysis, there are 9 strong levels: 1 support/2 resistance in 1D, 1S/1R in 3D, and 3S/3R balance in 1W. This structure points to volatility in the short term, although the overall trend is under downward pressure.
The calm news flow in recent periods makes the price dependent on technical factors. As seen in the COMP Spot Analysis reviews, the decline in spot market liquidity is triggering sales. On the futures side, the cleaning of leveraged positions may delay a possible bounce.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Support Zones
The most critical support is at the $23.7441 level (score: 63/100), located at the intersection of daily pivot and Fibonacci retracements. If this level breaks, the next target may shift to around $22.50 and test weekly lows. The concentration of 1D and 3D supports here in MTF confluence forms the last line of defense for buyers. Holding this area without a volume increase looks difficult, as the current downtrend momentum has the potential to erode supports.
Resistance Barriers
The first resistance is at the $24.2500 level (score: 68/100), positioned above short-term highs and coinciding with daily EMA10. Above it, the $25.6408 (score: 62/100) EMA20 line becomes a critical barrier. The Supertrend’s resistance at $28.01 is the main obstacle to overcome for the medium-term target. Breaking these levels could signal a bullish reversal, but the probability is low under the current bearish structure.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI at 34.85 is approaching the oversold region, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation. However, the absence of divergence indicates the trend may continue. In MACD, the negative histogram is widening and trading below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The EMAs have formed a death cross: price below EMA20 is pressuring toward EMA50 ($26.20).
While Supertrend maintains its bearish signal, ADX above 25 strengthens the downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator is also below %20, confirming oversold conditions, but volume is required for recovery. COMP Futures Analysis data shows the long/short ratio favoring shorts, emphasizing speculative pressure. Overall, momentum indicators confirm the downtrend is healthy and the risk of a sudden reversal is low.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
From a risk/reward perspective, the bearish target $16.8636 (score:22) offers %30 downside potential from the current price, while bullish $33.1073 (score:31) promises %37 upside. However, under downtrend dominance, the bearish scenario prevails. If $23.74 support holds, sideways consolidation is possible; if broken, descent to the $20s can accelerate with a cascade effect. Conversely, a close above $24.25 would be the first confirmation for reversal.
With low volatility, position sizing is critical; stop-losses should be placed below support. Macro risks include the Fed’s interest rate policy and contraction in DeFi TVLs. Outlook: Bearish in the short term, $23.74 test expected. In the medium term, recovery chances increase with BTC stabilization, but the current setup remains bearish. Always conduct your own assessment with sources like COMP detailed analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at the $89,748 level with -0.29% continues its downtrend, and the Supertrend bearish signal is a red alarm for altcoins. COMP’s high correlation with BTC (%0.85+ ) shows that if BTC tests the $88,400 support, it will drag COMP toward the $23s. If BTC breaks $86,629 and $84,681 supports, COMP can reach its bearish target ($16.86) amid altcoin bleeding.
Conversely, if BTC breaks $91,190 resistance (followed by $92,961 and $97,924), relief comes for COMP, and the $25.64 EMA can be tested. While rising BTC dominance crushes alts, current BTC weakness accelerates COMP’s decline. BTC key levels: Supports $88,400 / $86,629 / $84,681; Resistances $91,190 / $92,961 / $97,924. Altcoin traders should prioritize BTC movements.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.