Onchain profits flip negative as Bitcoin loses key cost bases, raising bear market risk and focus on support zones.
Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 level, pushing several onchain profitability measures into negative territory. Market data now points to growing downside pressure after a long period of strong gains.
Analysts explain that this current trend resembles early stages of past BTC bear markets. And for now, focus has turned toward major support zones as selling pressure builds.
Onchain Metrics Point to Early Bear Market Conditions
Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects a clear shift in short-term market structure. As per data from TradingView, consolidation is breaking lower. As such, this has placed attention on price levels beneath current ranges. Onchain indicators also suggest investor behavior is changing as profits weaken.
CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin holders have moved from realizing profits to locking in losses for the first time in over two years. Additionally, net realized profit and loss have turned negative.
For context, net realized profit tracks gains or losses when coins move onchain. This metric dropped to 69,000 BTC over the past four weeks, reflecting fading market strength.
Image Source: CryptoQuant
Market commentators at CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders began realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023. Declining peaks in realized profits since March 2024 point to slowing price momentum as the prior bull cycle fades. Annual net realized profits have also fallen sharply in recent months.
Bitcoin Loses Key Cost Basis Levels as Bearish Signals Multiply
Data shows annual realized profits dropped to about 2.5 million BTC, down from 4.4 million BTC in October. Similar levels last appeared in March 2022 during a prolonged market downturn. Analysts noted that current onchain profit behavior aligns with early bear market conditions.
Past cycles show comparable patterns, though analysts warned that profit metrics can give false signals during sideways markets. A similar setup occurred during the 2021 to 2022 transition from bull to bear. Realized profits peaked early in 2021 and formed lower highs before turning negative ahead of the 2022 decline.
With this in mind, several analysts now predict a broader bear market phase this year. In fact, some forecasts suggest that the OG coin could touch lows below $58,000 if sellers gain sustained momentum.
Interestingly, technical signals have added weight to bearish expectations in recent sessions. As spotted by market commentator Titan of Crypto, Bitcoin recently flashed a bear market signal on higher time frames.
Image Source: X/Titan of Crypto
A bearish MACD crossover on the two-month chart supports that view. On top of that, historical data shows that similar setups often preceded drawdowns between 50% and 64%.
Strong selling activity has already pushed Bitcoin down about 9% from its 2026 high near $97,930. Price action has broken several key support levels during the move lower. One major loss occurred at the 75th percentile cost basis, located near $92,940.
Bitcoin Support Zones in Focus as Price Tests $89,000–$90,000 Range
Glassnode noted that Bitcoin now trades below the cost basis of 75% of circulating supply. Such conditions point to rising distribution pressure among holders. Risk has shifted toward further downside unless prices reclaim that level.
Technical traders are also watching trendline support near current prices:
- Analyst Merlijn The Trader observed that Bitcoin is testing rising support between $89,000 and $90,000.
- A break below could send price back toward range lows near $84,000.
- Onchain cost basis data shows heavy buyer activity between $80,000 and $84,000.
- Around 941,651 BTC were acquired in that zone over the past six months.
Image Source: Glassnode
Many traders view the OG crypto’s current trading area as the strongest support in the near term. But another major support level sits just below that range, near $80,000. As spotted by onchain observers, roughly 127,000 BTC were previously accumulated at that price.
Technically, a broader downtrend could resume assuming the firstborn coin breaks below this level.
According to analysts, weak derivatives demand and long-term holders shedding coils further fuel a downside risk. Meanwhile, rising BTC transfers to exchanges may increase near term supply. And in such scenarios, these factors could pressure prices further as market sentiment cools.