ENA Technical Analysis Jan 23

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

ENA’s 24-hour trading volume reached 196.53 million dollars, indicating participation about 15% above the 7-day average volume. Although the price pulled back to 0.18 dollars with a slight 0.28% decline, examining the volume profile reveals a notable dynamic within the downtrend: volume increases remain limited during downward movements, while volume slightly rises in short-term recovery attempts. This suggests that market participants are not fully convinced by the selling pressure and hints at potential base formation.

According to volume profile analysis, the highest volume node (HVN) in the last 30-day visible range is concentrated in the 0.17-0.19 band, right below the current price. In lower timeframes (1H-4H), the point of control (POC) appears fixed around 0.1750. In terms of market participation, volume is weighted on retail-focused exchanges (Binance, Bybit), but movements in ENA staking and liquidity pools on DeFi platforms may signal institutional accumulation. Compared to the average daily volume of 170 million dollars, today’s 196 million shows ‘insufficient conviction’ for the downtrend – in a healthy bear market, we would expect volume explosions on declines, but the opposite is observed here.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

With low RSI (31.73) approaching oversold territory, the decrease in volume is a classic sign of accumulation: When price tested and was rejected at 0.1798 resistance, volume remained low (under 20% in the last 4 hours), suggesting sellers are starting to exhaust. In MTF volume context, 1D and 3D timeframes each have 1 support level (0.1710 score 82/100), weekly has 2 strong supports – volume shelves have formed here, hinting at institutions collecting cheaply. Over the last 3 days, volume on down candles decreased by 12%, while on up candles it increased by 8%; this divergence shows smart money is bottom fishing.

Additionally, in the context of ENA’s Ethena protocol, the increase in stablecoin supplies (approximately 150 million USDe minted) aligns with liquidity accumulation. Volume delta analysis shows positive divergence: Despite negative price momentum, cumulative volume delta is slightly positive, meaning buying pressure is secretly increasing.

Distribution Risks

On the other hand, Supertrend bearish and staying below EMA20 (0.21) keeps distribution risk alive. If 0.1710 support breaks, a volume spike could come under pressure from 3 resistances in the 1W timeframe – bearish target 0.0719 (score 22). MACD with negative histogram lacks volume confirmation: Even if volume isn’t high enough on declines, if BTC downtrend triggers, retail panic selling could inflate volume. Outflow of 5 million ENA from whale wallets in the last 24 hours (on-chain data) could be an early distribution signal.

Price-Volume Alignment

Although price is in a downtrend, volume price confirmation is weak: Despite the 0.28% decline, volume is only +15% above average, where 30%+ is expected for a healthy bear. This mismatch emphasizes the lack of conviction in the move – price is falling alone, without volume support. In up moves (e.g., yesterday from 0.17 to 0.185), volume increased 25%, in downs it fell 10%; bullish divergence is clear. We expect volume pickup at RSI 31, as volume confirmation is essential for oversold bounces. Rejection at 0.1798 was without volume, so fakeout probability is high – real breakout needs 220 million+ volume.

In MTF, 8 strong levels (1D:1S/1R, 3D:1S/1R, 1W:2S/3R), volume clusters are support-weighted; when price tests these levels, volume dry-up occurs, signaling shake-out of weak hands.

Big Player Activity

Institutional footprints are unclear but promising: On Binance futures, long/short ratio near 1.1, funding rate negative but low (-0.01%), so shorts could get squeezed. On-chain, 2.1 million ENA inflow to top 100 wallets (last 48 hours), smells like whale accumulation. In Volume by Price (VBP) indicator, low volume nodes (LVN) above 0.19, so cleanup needed for breakout – institutions likely defending the 0.17-0.18 band as POC. Watch for whale dumps for distribution, but for now accumulation pattern dominant: According to Wyckoff schematics, re-accumulation possible after ‘spring’ test.

Check detailed data for ENA Spot Analysis and ENA Futures Analysis.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 89,418 dollars with -0.75% decline in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. Altcoins like ENA are tied to BTC with 0.85 correlation; if BTC breaks 88,438 support, ENA accelerates to 0.1710, above 90,309 resistance signals alt season. BTC dominance increase crushes alts, key levels: BTC supp 88k/86k, res 90k/92k – For ENA, BTC below 86k triggers bearish target 0.0719, above 92k opens bullish 0.2835 (even if low score).

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume narrative: Downtrend conviction weak, accumulation signals prevail – volume test at 0.1710 critical. 220M+ volume with 0.1798 breakout bullish, below 150M dry-up bearish. Outlook: Short-term cautious bullish, wait for volume confirmation. Healthy volume: Spike on up, dry-up on down – currently matches this profile.