Ethereum Classic (ETC), despite showing a short-term recovery within the general downtrend, failed to achieve a sustained breakout above EMA20 ($12.27). RSI at 41.20 is in the neutral bearish zone, MACD with a negative histogram supports the downside momentum, while critical support around $11.40 is being tested; Bitcoin’s bearish supertrend is creating pressure on altcoins and providing a risk/reward advantage towards bearish targets ($7.95).
Executive Summary
ETC is trading at $11.73 as of January 23, 2026, with a 24-hour rise of %1.38, testing the daily range of $11.41-$11.79. While the overall market structure maintains the downtrend, Supertrend gives a bearish signal ($13.49 resistance) and price continues to stay below EMA20 ($12.27). Momentum indicators (RSI 41.20, MACD bearish) signal weakness, while volume at $36.55M provides moderate participation. Critical supports are clustered at $11.40 (67/100 score), where a break opens the $7.95 bearish target, while the upside target $15.92 (31/100 score) remains low probability. Bitcoin’s $89,312 downtrend and bearish supertrend create correlated pressure on ETC. Strategic outlook: Cautious short positions or waiting for long before support, with risk/reward superior in the bearish direction.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
ETC’s dominant trend is progressing in a clear down channel; on the weekly chart, a %35+ decline has occurred from $18+ highs. On the daily timeframe, Supertrend is bearish pointing to $13.49 resistance, price action has formed a short-term Higher Low ($11.41 low) but lacks Higher High confirmation. The down structure remains intact on 3-day and weekly timeframes: 1D with 1 support/1 resistance, 3D with 2S/1R, 1W with 3S/3R, providing a total of 9 strong level confluences. This multi-timeframe alignment indicates that a trend reversal is distant; potential rallies could turn into sell-on-rally scenarios.
Structural Levels
Main structural supports at $11.3981 (67/100 strength, daily low confluence) and below $11.00 psychological/EMA50 zone. On the resistance side, $12.0400 (75/100 score, near EMA20) is the first hurdle, followed by $12.27 EMA20 and $13.49 Supertrend. Weekly pivots define $10.80 support and $14.50 resistance; these levels are strengthened by overlaying with Fibonacci retracements (0.618 $11.50, 0.5 $13.00).
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 41.20 is in the neutral bearish zone close to oversold; no divergence, meaning momentum weakness continues. The 41 level could support movement towards 50 in short-term recoveries, but reaching 70+ overbought zone is insufficient for trend reversal. MACD histogram is expanding negatively, no crossover above the signal line; bearish cross confirmed 3 days ago. Stochastic %K 35, %D 40 shows similar weakness. Overall momentum confluence: %70 bearish, rallies may end with momentum loss.
Trend Indicators
EMA clustering is bearish: Price below EMA20 ($12.27), EMA50 ($12.80), and EMA200 ($14.20); death cross (EMA20
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Support map: First line of defense $11.3981 (67/100, volume profile low + Fib 0.786), second $11.00 (psychological + 1W S1), third $10.50 (3D support confluence). Resistances: $12.0400 (75/100, swing high + near EMA), $12.27 (EMA20), $13.49 (Supertrend). Multi-TF analysis defines 9 levels: Supports dominance %55 (balanced 1D/3D/1W distribution), resistance %45. Breakout scenarios: Above $12.04 opens to $13.50 (RR 1:2.5), below $11.40 rapid drop to $10.00 (RR 1:3). Volume-weighted average price (VWAP) at $11.65, price below strengthens short bias.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume $36.55M, up %15 from previous days but below average (%40M); recovery remains volume-less, bearish divergence warns. OBV (On-Balance Volume) negative slope, buying pressure insufficient. Volume profile POC (Point of Control) at $11.40, high-volume down bands at $12.00-$12.50 provide POC – these zones are strong sell areas. Futures open interest moderate ($150M around), funding rate negative (-0.01%) reflects short dominance. Volume confluence: Participation low, signaling trend continuation.
Risk Assessment
Bullish target $15.9210 (31/100 score, RR 1:1.8 from current price), bearish $7.9539 (22/100, RR 1:2.7). Overall risk/reward superior in bearish direction (2.7:1.8); volatility ATR(14) %5.2 medium-high. Main risks: BTC $88K support break triggers altcoin cascade, no news flow but macro Fed data could increase volatility. Position management: Stop-loss $11.80 (above resistance), take-profit at $11.00 support. Max risk %2 portfolio, short scalping prioritized since market conditions are bearish.
Bitcoin Correlation
ETC correlates with BTC at %0.85; BTC at $89,312 (-0.79%) in downtrend with bearish Supertrend ($91K resistance). BTC critical supports $88,269 / $86,739 / $84,681 break would pull ETC to $10.50 (beta 1.2). Resistance above $89,422 / $91,132 triggers sizeless rally, opening ETC to $13+ test. BTC dominance rise (%52+) pressures altcoins: ETC/BTC pair at 0.000131 in down channel, ETC long risky without BTC recovery. To watch: If BTC holds $88K, ETC stable; on break, $10 target active.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
Holistic view synthesizing ETC’s technical picture: Dominant downtrend, bearish indicator confluence (%75+), critical support test, and BTC dependency yield cautious bearish. Short-term $12.04 breakout can be monitored but volume-less rallies are short opportunities. Long-term, $11.40 hold leads to range play, break to $8 bear target. Strategy: For ETC Spot Analysis long before support, 5x leveraged short with ETC Futures Analysis (stop $12.00). Market watches: BTC $88K, ETC volume spike, RSI divergence. This report serves as professional decision support with balanced risk management.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.