TON completed the week with a 3.28% decline at the $1.53 level, maintaining its downtrend structure; the critical $1.5293 support stands out as the key point that will answer whether it’s the start of accumulation or continuation of distribution. The market structure requires a cautious strategy for altcoins under BTC’s bearish supertrend pressure.
TON in the Weekly Market Summary
TON declined from $1.59 to $1.53 over the past week, exhibiting weak momentum in a narrow trading range (%-3.28 change). The volume profile remained low at $39.01M, while RSI at 38.46 approaches oversold territory, but MACD’s negative histogram confirms the bearish trend. Trading below EMA20 ($1.66) keeps the short-term bearish filter active. In the broader picture, TON’s long-term downtrend continues, with multi-timeframe confluence in the testing phase at critical supports. This week, the market phase retains distribution characteristics, but around $1.5293, it could provide potential accumulation signals. Check spot data for detailed TON spot analysis.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure (weekly and monthly timeframes) exhibits a clear downtrend with lower high/lower low formation. The trend filter points to $1.79 resistance as bearish, and the price remaining below EMA20 ($1.66) and EMA50 indicates the structure’s solidity. In the context of the market cycle, TON appears to have entered the distribution phase following the rally at the end of 2025; however, the lack of a clear macro catalyst increases the likelihood of consolidation. Trend persistence remains intact until a break above $1.79; this level is a mandatory inflection point for a long-term uptrend reversal.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
According to Wyckoff methodology, TON’s current phase is dominated by distribution patterns: low-volume consolidation after high-volume selling signals smart money position closing. However, the strong support at $1.5293 (87/100 score) shows accumulation characteristics similar to a spring test – volume increase should be observed as price approaches this zone. A break below $1.4596 is critical for distribution continuation; in this case, a capitulation phase could be triggered. For accumulation signals, expect support hold + RSI divergence. Overall, the market structure is early for a transition to accumulation; distribution pressure is dominant.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily chart, price is trapped below $1.5507 resistance (63/100 score); MACD bearish cross and RSI 38.46 indicate weak momentum. The 1D timeframe shows 2 support/3 resistance confluence: main support $1.5293, resistances in the $1.5507-$1.6237 band. Trend structure is bearish with lower lows; however, oversold RSI carries short-term bounce potential. Persistence below EMA20 maintains the daily bearish filter.
Weekly Chart View
From the weekly perspective, with 3 support/2 resistance confluence, $1.5293 and $1.4596 supports are strong (at weekly low test). Price is in a downtrend channel below weekly EMA20 ($1.66); $2.0022 upside objective is a distant target (31/100 score). The market phase is indecisive with weekly candles closing doji-like; however, the negative histogram reinforces bearish bias. The 3D timeframe remains neutral, while overall confluence leans bearish.
Critical Decision Points
Key levels will determine direction: Supports $1.5293 (87/100, downside to $1.4596-$1.0300 on break), Resistances $1.5507 (first test), $1.6237, and $1.79 (for trend change). A hold at $1.5293 provides confluence for bullish scenario; a break opens aggressive short opportunities. Look for volume spikes at these levels in the volume profile – $1.0300 (22/100 score) is a major risk level. Follow futures data for TON futures market data and leverage strategies.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
In Case of Upside
Hold above $1.5293 + break of $1.5507 is bullish trigger: First target $1.6237, then $2.0022. For long positions, stop below $1.52; R/R 1:3+ targeted (upside objective based). For momentum, wait for RSI>50 and MACD positive cross. For position traders, weekly close above $1.59 confirms accumulation.
In Case of Downside
Break of $1.5293 is bearish scenario: Targets $1.4596, then $1.0300. Short entry below $1.52; stop above $1.55. Volume increase is required for distribution continuation. Risk management: Limit position size to 2% risk, monitor BTC correlation.
Bitcoin Correlation
TON shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC’s downtrend at $88,984 level (24h -1.14%) and bearish supertrend create pressure on altcoins. If BTC supports $88,321-$86,701 break, TON accelerates to $1.4596; if BTC breaks $90,356 resistance, TON short covering could trigger. Rising dominance accelerates distribution in alts – prioritize BTC key levels. For broader market view, see TON and other analyses.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
Next week’s focus: $1.5293 support test and volume reaction; $1.5507 resistance break will be direction-determining. BTC close below $88k triggers TON downside, above $90k provides relief. While trend structure remains bearish, position traders should consider long scalps on support hold, shorts on break. Strategic patience, wait for confluence.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.