German flash Composite PMI rises faster than expected to 52.5 vs. 51.3 prior

According to flash estimates, the Composite PMI in the German economy expanded at a faster pace to 52.5 in January from 51.3 in December, also beating estimates of 51.8. The overall business activity rose strongly due to upbeat service sector activity.

The Services PMI has come in at 53.3, higher than estimates of 53.0 and the prior release of 52.7. The Manufacturing PMI has contracted again, but at a moderate pace to 48.7. Economists expected the data to come in higher at 48.0 from the previous reading of 47.0.

“The data show a good start to the new year, overall. Output in the manufacturing sector returned to – albeit meagre – growth, and so did new orders. Even more encouraging is the stronger pickup in activity in the services sector. Looking ahead, confidence has risen noticeably in the services sector and has held at a solid level in manufacturing,” Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), said.

FX Implications

There seems to be a positive impact of upbeat German PMI data on the Euro (EUR). EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.1740 from its intraday low of 1.1728.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.08%	0.05%	0.00%	0.02%	-0.11%	0.10%	0.11%
EUR	-0.08%		-0.03%	-0.07%	-0.06%	-0.19%	0.02%	0.02%
GBP	-0.05%	0.03%		-0.04%	-0.03%	-0.16%	0.05%	0.05%
JPY	0.00%	0.07%	0.04%		0.03%	-0.11%	0.10%	0.11%
CAD	-0.02%	0.06%	0.03%	-0.03%		-0.14%	0.07%	0.08%
AUD	0.11%	0.19%	0.16%	0.11%	0.14%		0.21%	0.22%
NZD	-0.10%	-0.02%	-0.05%	-0.10%	-0.07%	-0.21%		-0.00%
CHF	-0.11%	-0.02%	-0.05%	-0.11%	-0.08%	-0.22%	0.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

(This section below was published at 06:32 GMT as a preview of the Germany/Eurozone preliminary September HCOB PMIs data for January.)

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview

The preliminary German and Eurozone flash HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January is due for release today at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively.

Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.

The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to come in higher due to an improvement in both manufacturing and the service sector activity. In December, the Composite PMI came in at 51.3.

Preliminary Services PMI is seen at 53, higher than 52.7 in December. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have contracted again, but at a slower pace, to 48.0 from the prior reading of 47.0. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in the business activity.

The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI also shows that overall private sector output increased at a faster pace in January, driven by improvements in both manufacturing and the services sector. The Services PMI is seen at 52.8, up from 52.4 in December. Like the German Manufacturing PMI, the manufacturing activity in the old continent has contracted too, but at a moderate pace to 49 from the previous release of 48.8.

How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?

Signs of strength in overall business sector activity from the German/ Eurozone flash PMI prints would be favorable for the Euro (EUR), while weak numbers would act as a drag on the shared currency.

EUR/USD trades close to the three-week high of 1.1769 as of writing. The major currency pair trades within a Symmetrical Triangle on the daily chart, indicating broader volatility contraction. The price is close to the upper boundary of the volatility contraction pattern around 1.1770, which is plotted from the multi-year high of 1.1919 posted on September 17.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1690 turns higher, and price holds above it, keeping the short-term recovery in place. A close above the 20-day EMA would preserve the bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.44 signals firm momentum.

Looking up, the pair could advance towards 1.1800 and 1.1900 following a decisive breakout of the January 20 high at 1.1769. On the upside, the 20-day EMA will act as key support for the pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

HCOB Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.